Baku, Azerbaijan, June 1
By Elmira Tariverdiyeva - Trend:
The escalation of the situation on the line of contact of Azerbaijani and Armenian troops in April 2016 further undermined the hope for peaceful settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Nina Caspersen, senior lecturer in politics at the University of York, wrote in her article published in The Washington Post.
According to the article, even though both sides avoided escalation into a full-scale war, the halt in hostilities is fragile, and the conflict could easily accelerate anew.
"The Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders are scheduled to meet in June to resume talks on a comprehensive settlement, but this will prove an uphill struggle," the author said. "Two decades of talks have failed to produce a breakthrough."
The author said that the recent fighting appears to have shifted the front line in Azerbaijan's favor.
"This is significant," she said. "The Azerbaijani gains dealt a blow to Armenian pride, but more importantly, they signaled that Nagorno-Karabakh's position is perhaps not as secure as the entity's leadership believed it to be or as strong as they have portrayed it to their public."
Foreign policy experts generally see Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, as a stronger leader than his Armenian counterpart Serzh Sargsyan, the article said.
"Since coming to power in 2003, President Aliyev has consolidated his position and cracked down on any opposition," the article said. "And the four-day war sparked a bout of nationalist euphoria, with Azerbaijanis excited over their perceived victory."
The conflict between the two South Caucasus countries began in 1988 when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan. As a result of the ensuing war, in 1992 Armenian armed forces occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijan, including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and seven surrounding districts. The 1994 ceasefire agreement was followed by peace negotiations.
Armenia has not yet implemented four UN Security Council resolutions on withdrawal of its armed forces from the Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding districts.