Azerbaijan, Baku, Sept. 24/ Trend V. Zhavoronkova/
Tajikistan is likely to continue with the Rohun hydropower plant construction project even if the World Bank (WB) that holds international expertise over the project, decides that its impact may be harmful, U.S. expert on Central Asia, Bruce Pannier believes.
It is expected that the preliminary report on the ecological expertise of the Rohun hydropower plant will be published in late September. Uzbekistan opposes the construction of the plant because of possible negative impact of the project to the country. This matter brought to strained relations between the countries.
World Bank regional director Saroj Kumar Jha was in Tajikistan in February to negotiate about the Roghun dam with Tajik officials.
Jha stressed there was still work going on and that whatever the World Bank's final assessment would be, it would still be up to the parties directly involved to decide whether the dam is or is not built, Pannier stressed.
"But it looks like the WB is about to say the project presents no harmful impact to Tajikistan or its downstream neighbours [such as Uzbekistan],"expert told Trend on Tuesday.
If the report unexpectedly finds that the project is unfeasible or unsafe that would be a heavy blow to Tajik President Emomali Rahmon and his government, he added.
"Rahmon has been holding up Roghun as a sign of national pride and a way of breaking dependence on natural gas imports from Uzbekistan. Tashkent has often shown its displeasure with Tajik government's decisions by reducing or totally cutting off gas supplies to Tajikistan, which account for some 90% of Tajikistan's gas," Pannier said.
"I think Rahmon would still try to go ahead with the project even if the World Bank report advises against it," he added.
In late 2009 and 2010 there was a huge campaign in Tajikistan to donate money toward construction of Roghun.
Almost everyone had to contribute some of their wages and in return they received shares in the project.
Media reported some $180 million (of the needed $1.3 billion) worth of shares in the project had been sold before summer 2010 but by the end of the year some media outlets said that more than one share was sold in the last three months of 2010.
"Still, if Rahmon announced the project was cancelled it would mean giving back at least part of that $180 million to citizens who bought shares and the Tajik government does not have $180 million to spare for that," Pannier believes.