Baku, Azerbaijan, June 12
By Elena Kosolapova - Trend:
It is worth expecting strengthening of the national currency in Kazakhstan by late 2016, said the forecast of Kazakhstan's Kazkommerts Securities investment company.
"Despite the situation greatly improved on the foreign markets and the internal factors normalized, we have not seen real strengthening of the national currency," the company's forecast said.
"In other words, the potential of the currency has not been exhausted, and the exchange rate may hit 310-320 tenge per dollar by late 2016," the forecast said.
According to the forecast, the stabilization of interest rates is observed on the Kazakh monetary market, while the dollarization level of the bank deposits is falling amid great weakening of the devaluation expectations and attractive yield in tenge.
According to the company's forecasts, the external situation will remain favorable for Kazakhstan's national currency. One of the favorable factors is that oil price has been fixed at over $50 a barrel and if there are any shocks, the crude oil price is unlikely to fall below $40 per barrel.
According to the forecast, the prices will be at a stable level because the oil production in the US continues to decline, oil shale industry is in deep crisis, investments in the oil industry have fallen sharply and oil consumption is growing.
According to Kazkommerts Securities, the inflation rates will be reduced in Kazakhstan and the inflation will hit 6-8 percent as of 2016.
The tenge rate began to fall in August 2015, after the National Bank of Kazakhstan passed to a floating rate. As a result, Kazakhstan's national currency fell by half for six months and reached the minimum level of 383.91 KZT / USD in January 2016 and then began changing. As of June 10, tenge rate was 330.16 tenge / dollar.
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