Baku, Azerbaijan, July 20
By Azad Hasanli – Trend:
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered the forecast for the world economic growth for 2016 and 2017, referring to the growing uncertainty caused by Brexit, according to the updated IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO).
IMF said that taking into account the better-than-expected economic activity so far in 2016 and the likely impact of Brexit, the global growth forecasts for 2016 and 2017 were both marked down by 0.1 percentage points relative to the April 2016 WEO, to 3.1 percent and 3.4 percent, respectively.
“The real effects of Brexit will play out gradually over time, adding elements of economic and political uncertainty that could be resolved only after many months,” IMF chief economist Maurice Obstfeld said in the text of remarks for a press briefing.
“This overlay of extra uncertainty, in turn, may open the door to an amplified response of financial markets to negative shocks,” he added.
Nevertheless, Obstfeld believes that in H1 2016, the global economy will show some encouraging signs, for example, stronger-than-expected growth in Eurozone and Japan, as well as a partial recovery in commodity prices that have helped some countries with developing economies.
Below are the forecasts for the world’s largest economies for 2016 and 2017:
|
Region/Country |
2015 |
2016 (forecast) |
2017 (forecast) |
|
Eurozone |
1.7% |
1.6% |
1.4% |
|
US |
2.4% |
2.2% |
2.5% |
|
Japan |
0.5% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
|
UK |
2.2% |
1.7% |
1.3% |
|
Canada |
1.1% |
1.4% |
2.1% |
|
China |
6.9% |
6.6% |
6.2% |
|
India |
7.6% |
7.4% |
7.4% |
|
Brazil |
-3.8% |
-3.3% |
0.5% |
|
Russia |
-3.7% |
-1.2% |
1% |