Baku, Azerbaijan, Sept. 9
By Aygun Badalova - Trend:
Analysts of the British economic research and consulting company Capital Economics expect Turkey’s GDP growth to be much weaker in the coming quarters compared to the second quarter’s figure of 3.1 percent year over year.
“Data released this morning showed that Turkish GDP expanded by 3.1 percent year over year in Q2, down from 4.7 percent year over year in Q1,” William Jackson, Senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics said in the report, obtained by Trend.
“In seasonally-adjusted terms, output rose by 0.3 percent over the quarter, down from 0.7 percent quarter over quarter (q/q) in Q1, its worst reading in two years," said the report.
The breakdown of the data showed that the slowdown in headline GDP growth was driven mainly by weaker consumer spending and a larger drag from net trade, he said.
The key point, however, is that today’s weak data predate July’s attempted coup, which already seems to have disrupted activity, according to Jackson.
Overall, Capital Economics’ analysts think there’s a very real possibility that GDP may contract in q/q terms in the third quarter.
“Today’s data mean the risks to our growth forecast for this year of 3.3 percent are now skewed to the downside. Growth of 2.8-3 percent now looks more plausible. We remain comfortable with our view that growth will average just 2 percent next year, which is far below the consensu,” Jackson said.