Baku, Azerbaijan, Nov.24
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
The US president-elect Donald Trump is highly unlikely to support ratification of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement, Russell A. Green, a Will Clayton Fellow in International Economics at Rice University's Baker Institute (Houston) told Trend Nov.24.
Given lack of enthusiasm in the US Congress, passing TPP would require a major use of political capital, according to the expert.
“It seems unlikely Trump would decide to use precious time and energy for a treaty he promised not to support. He campaigned strongly against it and similar trade liberalization efforts,” he added.
Green believes that there will be no major immediate change if the US withdraws from TPP, but in the medium-term, it will have consequences.
The US trading partners, not just in Asia, will see this as its withdrawal from supporting free trade in general, he said.
“In Asia, the TPP countries will seek alternative trade alliances, and the treaties they form are unlikely to uphold America's high standards on labor, environment, investor protection, internet freedom or intellectual property,” added Green.
The expert doubts collapse of the TPP will trigger protectionism, but it will discard the chance to halt the current worldwide accretion of small trade barriers.
“TPP has been a major rallying point, and it is not clear what would be the impact of removing it. Will anti-globalizers declare victory and go home or get motivated? Will pro-globalizers get motivated or discouraged? We will soon find out,” he said.
The Trans-Pacific Partnership is a proposed free trade agreement linking the United States and 11 other Pacific Rim economies. The agreement would lower tariffs and other trade barriers among Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the US and Vietnam.
The finalized proposal was signed on February 4, 2016 in Auckland, New Zealand, concluding seven years of negotiations. It is currently awaiting ratification to enter into force.