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World oil prices forecasts for 2015 and 2016

Oil&Gas Materials 20 November 2014 17:57 (UTC +04:00)

Baku, Azerbaijan, Nov. 20

By Aygun Badalova - Trend:

Oil prices will continue to fall with Brent and WTI averaging respectively $82 and $77.25 per barrel in 2015, analysts from US JP Morgan bank forecast.

Analysts' assessment of the fundamental causes of the weaker oil price levels is based on the view that lower US imports of African crude are forcing a rebalancing of global crude markets with excess supplies from the Atlantic Basin exiting the region and on the margin heading to Asia, according to the JP Morgan's report, obtained by Trend.

Assuming that no agreement will be reached during the forthcoming OPEC meeting, analysts expect Brent to push towards $70 per barrel in December. In extreme circumstances, they would not exclude the possibility of Brent reaching $65 per barrel.

"However, the prospect of prices moving below $70 per barrel should provide a sufficiently strong catalyst for OPEC members to resolve their differencies in opinion, albeit perhaps not until the New Year," analysts said.

In 2016 analysts forecast Brent price to be at $87.75 per barrel and WTI price at $80.75 per barrel.

The lowest price in 2015 is expected in the first quarter at $75 per barrel for Brent and $72 per barrel for WTI.

In the third quarter of 2016 analysts expect prices to reach the highest level during all year - $90 per barrel for Brent and $83 per barrel for WTI.

JP Morgan forecasts for oil prices, 2015, 2015 (in $/bl)

2014

IVQ

2014

2015

IQ

2015

IIQ

2015

IIIQ

2015

IVQ

2015

2016

IQ

2016

IIQ

2016

IIIQ

2016

IVQ

2016

Brent

80.0

100.3

75.00

80.00

85.00

88.00

82.00

85.00

88.00

90.00

88.00

87.75

WTI

76.00

93.7

72.00

76.00

80.00

81.00

77.25

78.00

81.00

83.00

81.00

80.75

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