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Iran's oil export revenues to be $23 B without nuclear deal

Oil&Gas Materials 31 January 2015 13:16 (UTC +04:00)
Iran's oil export revenue is estimated to reach $23 billion in 2015 without achieving a comprehensive nuclear deal with P5+1.
Iran's oil export revenues to be $23 B without nuclear deal

Baku, Azerbaijan, Jan.30

By Dalga Khatinoglu - Trend:

Iran's oil export revenue is estimated to reach $23 billion in 2015 without achieving a comprehensive nuclear deal with P5+1.

The World Bank released a report Jan.29 about the gainers and losers of plunging oil prices saying that the politics will be as important as the price of oil for Iran.

"If a deal is reached in the nuclear talks with the P5+1 (the United Nations Security Council and Germany) and oil sanctions are lifted, oil exports are expected to rebound to pre- sanctions levels by 2017," World Bank reported.

Iran's oil export was around 2.2 million barrels per day in 2011. However, recently the International Monetary Fund estimated that the figure for 2014 decreased to 1.24 million barrels per day and was 90,000 barrels per day more than the previous year.

Iran and P5+1 sealed an interim deal in Geneva on November 24,2013 to pave the way for the full resolution of the decade-old dispute over the Islamic Republic's nuclear program.

The Geneva deal took effect on January 20, 2014 and expired on July 20, 2014.

However, the two sides have agreed to extend their talks two times by June 30, 2015.

World Bank says "as oil makes up about 80 percent of total export earnings and 50 to 60 percent of (Iranian) government revenues, the economy could grow substantially under this scenario. With no deal, cheap oil could mean a 60 percent drop in fiscal revenues, down to $23.7 billion in 2015 from its peak of $120 billion in 2011/12. Under this scenario, a loss of about 20 percent of GDP would be expected, bringing GDP growth down to zero (from the previous year's 1.5 percent), and the economy would continue to shrink. This will put tremendous pressure on inflation, unemployment, the fiscal deficit and the currency".

Despite the World Bank statement, the IMF is a little more optimistic about Iran's economy performance for the current year.

A glance at IMF's report about Iran's economic performance

Average

2000-11

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Real GDP Growth (%)

5.2

-6.6

-1.9

3

0.6

1.3

Oil GDP growth (%)

1.5

-37.2

-8.9

7.3

-2.7

-1.0

Nominal GDP (Bln $)

276.9

418.9

386.2

406.3

386.2

393.8

Consumer Price Inflation (Year average; percent)

15.1

30.5

34.7

15.8

17.3

17.0

Broad Money Growth

(Annual change; percent)

27.5

28.3

29.8

22.9

19.4

18.7

Exports of Goods and Services

(Bln $)

76.5

105.0

100.0

94.9

80.0

82.1

Imports of Goods and Services

(Bln $)

59.6

80.4

73.7

82.6

77.8

80.6

Gross Official Reserves (Bln $)

50.0

104.4

117.6

126.5

130.1

130.6

Oil production (mb/d)

3.96

3.17

2.85

3.09

2.91

2.82

Oil export (mb/d)

...

1.50

1.13

1.24

1.15

1.07

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