Baku, Azerbaijan, April 6
By Aygun Badalova - Trend:
OPEC oil production will gradually rise in the course of 2015 and 2016, reaching 31.5 million barrels per day (bpd) by the end of 2016 compared to the current 30 million bpd, according to forecasts of the analysts from the US JP Morgan bank.
In a report, obtained by Trend, analysts said that OPEC assessment for 2015 and 2016 incorporates increased Iraqi growth as mid-stream supply constraints ease in the coming quarter, pushing output to 4.1 million bpd in 4Q2016 and the expansion of Iranian output by 300,000 bpd from current levels starting in 4Q2015.
Last week Iran and world powers reached a framework agreement on implementation of some restrictions over Iran's nuclear program for at least a decade. In exchange, the EU and the US will stop imposing their sanctions on Iran after reaching a comprehensive nuclear deal (expected to be achieved by June 30).
JP Morgan analysts forecast OPEC oil production to amount to 30.4 million bpd in the second quarter of 2015, 30.8 million bpd in the third quarter and 31.1 million bpd in the fourth quarter of the year.
For 2016 OPEC oil production is forecasted at 31.3 million bod in the first and second quarters, 31.6 million bpd in the third quarter and 31.5 million bpd in the fourth quarter.
OPEC members held a meeting in ministerial level November 27, 2014 to evaluate the global oil market and the falling trend of the oil price. Iran and Venezuela wanted to lower the Cartel's oil output and set a new ceiling level below the current 30 mbpd level.
OPEC oil supply reached 30.63 million bpd in March, which was the highest level since October.
OPEC crude oil production by member states
|
Country |
1Q15 |
2Q15 |
3Q15 |
4Q15 |
1Q16 |
2Q16 |
3Q16 |
4Q16 |
|
Algeria |
1.1 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
|
Angola |
1.8 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
|
Ecuador |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
|
Iran |
2.8 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
3.1 |
3.2 |
3.2 |
3.2 |
3.2 |
|
Iraq |
3.2 |
3.6 |
3.7 |
3.8 |
3.9 |
3.9 |
4.0 |
4.1 |
|
Kuwait |
2.8 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
|
Libya |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
Nigeria |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
|
Qatar |
0.7 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
|
Saudi Arabia |
9.7 |
9.7 |
9.8 |
9.7 |
9.7 |
9.8 |
9.9 |
9.8 |
|
UAE |
2.8 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
|
Venezuela |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
Aygun Badalova is Trend Agency's staff journalist, follow her on Twitter:@AygunBadalova