Azerbaijan, Baku, October 8 / Trend N. Ismayilova /
According to IMF forecasts, growth of real GDP will slightly reduce in Azerbaijan but preserve as positive by hitting 7.5 percent in 2009 but 7.4 percent in 2010, head of IMF representation in Baku Koba Gvenetadze said at a press-conference dedicated to presentation of the fund's report 'Prospects of world economy development' on October 8.
"Growth of oil sector in 2009 is forecasted to the amount of 11 percent with total growth of economy of 7.5 percent but four percent for non-oil sector," Gvenetadze said.
He said that growth of oil sector will hit 10 percent in 2010 but non-oil sector - 5 percent according to the fund's forecast. Forecasts on rates of GDP's growth can be reconsidered due to changed prices for oil. Oil export plays significant role for Azerbaijani economy.
"Inflation is expected to reduce in Azerbaijan in 2009. It will hit 2.2 percent and it is stipulated by reduction of prices for imported goods and domestic demand. But it will increase up to 5.3 percent," Gvenetadze said.
He said that forecasts on inflation can be also reconsidered as it depends on indices reflected in the budget for 2010.
"Azerbaijani fiscal balance was changed for positive one in 2009 compared to deficit forecasted earlier due to increase of average price for oil taking into account by the fund while preparation of forecasts from $50 to $62 per barrel.
According to IMF forecasts, balance of current operations' account in Azerbaijan will hit 19.6 percent for GDP in 2009 compared to 35.5 percent in 2008. This index will increase up to 23.1 percent for GDP in 2010, IMF said.
According to the IMF, prospect of growth, is more favorable for energy-exporting countries.
Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan will suffer moderate slowdown in 2009 and unchanged growth in 2010 as prices for energy resources will stabilize and fiscal expansion support domestic demand.
Kazakhstan is an exception. Its economy will reduce by two percent in 2009. IMF expects its slight restoration in 2010, which is the result of anti-crisis plan worth $ 10 billion, aiming to recapitalize banks and support economic restoration.
The Azerbaijani government forecasted rates of GDP's growth in 2009 to the amount of 18.9 percent but expects to the amount of 10 percent.
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