Azerbaijan, Baku, Feb. 13 / Trend A.Badalova /
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts an increase in oil production by OPEC at an average of 0.4mln bpd up to 29.47mln bpd in 2010, compared to 29.1mln bpd in 2009.
In 2009, oil production by OPEC countries reduced by 2.2 million bpd, which was the cause of stabilization of world oil prices at $70$-80 per barrel in mid-2009. According to EIA, currently OPEC's excess production capacity stands at 5 million bpd, and may grow to 6 million bpd in late 2010.
Based on EIA February report on the short-term review of the energy market, OPEC's production growth in 2010 and in 2011 will be associated with the restoration of the world oil demand.
World oil demand
Based on EIA forecast, in 2010 the world oil demand will increase by 1.2 million bpd - up to 85.3 million bpd, compared to 84.1 million bpd in 2009. Previously, EIA forecasted the world oil to reach 85.18 million bpd. The increase of forecast is connected with the continuing recovery of demand in the Asian countries, affecting, in turn, with strong economic growth. In December 2009, China's oil demand rose by 0.9 million bpd, the agency reported. .
In 2011, EIA predicts an increase in the world oil demand by 1.6 million bpd - up to 86,9 million bpd.
Based on EIA estimates, in 2010, OECD countries' oil demand will increase by 0.13 million bpd - up to 45.56 million bpd. Non-OECD countries' oil demand will be 39.74 million bpd in 2010 compared to 38.68 million bpd in 2009.
Oil supplies by non-OPEC countries
Based on EIA forecast, in 2010 oil supply by non-OPEC countries will increase by 0.43 million bpd - up to 50.66 million bpd and decrease by 0.12 million bpd - up to 50.54 million bpd in 2011.
In 2010, growth in oil supplies by non-OPEC countries will be observed thanks to the U.S., Brazil and Azerbaijan, the agency reported.
The volume of oil supplies by former Soviet states will be 13.15 million bpd in 2010 and 13.11 million bpd in 2011.
EIA projected Azerbaijan's oil production at 1.13 million bpd in 2010 and 1.21 million bpd in 2011.
Kazakhstan will produce 1.65 million bpd in 2010 and 1.7 million bpd in 2011, the agency forecasted.
Based on EIA forecast, Turkmenistan's oil production will reach 9.2 million bpd in 2010 and 0.21 million bpd in 2011.
The volume of the global oil supply will increase by 1.42 million bpd- up to 85.55 million bpd in 2010, EIA forecasted.
Oil Prices
EIA expects another strengthening in the world oil market in spring. Based on EIA forecasts, the average price of U.S. crude oil WTI will rise to $81 per barrel in the second half of 2010 and up to $84 per barrel in 2011.
EIA projections are associated with expectations for the world economic recovery, and in particular the U.S. economy. It is projected that in 2010, the U.S. GDP will grow by 2.3 percent and 2.5 percent in 2011. The world economic growth will be 2.7 and 3.6 percent, respectively, in 2010 and 2011.
EIA expects that in the next few months, spot price of WTI will remain at a level close to the current, reaching $ 76 per barrel in February and March and then increased to $82 per barrel by the end of spring.
As a result of trades on Thursday Feb.11, the March futures price for the U.S. crude oil WTI rose by $0.76 - up to $75.28 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The State Energy Information Administration is statistical agency of U.S Department of Energy established by the Congress in 1977.
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