Azerbaijan, Baku, Feb. 20 / Trend T. Konyayeva /
World oil demand will increase by 1.25 million barrel per day in the second half of 2010. It will lead to higher prices for raw materials, Iran's representative to OPEC Mohammad Ali Khatibi forecasts.
"Demand for oil will increase to 85.7 million barrel per day in the third quarter and up to 86.4 million barrels in the fourth quarter of 2010," Khatibi said in an interview with the Iranian news agency Shana. According to him, in 2009 the world oil demand averaged 84.4 million barrels per day.
According to him, prices and demand for oil are not expected to increase in the first half of 2010.
"Now, oil prices hit $ 70-80 per barrel, but they can reduce in the first half of the year. Oil prices are not expected to increase in the first half of this year given that after January-February the cold season is coming to an end and the demand for fuel is falling too," Iran's representative to OPEC said.
Western experts also think that oil prices will increase in 2010.
BP Chief Economist Christopher Ruel does not exclude the possibility of a slight increase in oil prices. The growth of the world economy and OPEC's policy of fixing quotas for oil production will support them in 2010, Energy Intelligence Group said.
OPEC meeting will be held in Vienna in March 17. The need to reduce oil production will be solved there. According to many analysts, today's oil prices quite satisfy the members of OPEC. So, they will not change the quota. Nevertheless, there is a probability that the cartel can still decide to change the quotas to avoid price fall below $ 70 a barrel.
According to forecasts of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), world oil demand in 2010 will increase by 1.2 million barrels a day - up to 85.3 million barrels a day, compared to 84.1 million in 2009. Increase of the forecast for consumption of raw materials was caused by the continuing restoration of demand in Asian countries, related, in its turn, with strong economic growth.
Forecasts of world oil prices for 2010-2011 ($/barrel)
|
Company |
2010 |
2011 |
|
EIA |
80 (W) |
84 (W) |
|
JPMorgan |
78,25 (W) 78,25 (B) |
90 (W) 90 (B) |
|
Goldman Sachs |
90 (W) |
110 (W) |
|
Morgan Stanley |
95 (end of the year) (W) |
100 (W) |
|
BofA Merrill Lynch |
78,5 (the first half) (W) |
>100 (beginning) (W) |
|
Capital Economics |
62,5 (B) |
50 (B) |
W - WTI
B - Brent