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Iran’s power outlook; projects and demand

Business Materials 24 October 2016 15:30 (UTC +04:00)
During the last five years, Iran’s annual power generation growth stood at about 2.5 percent on average, about a half of planned volume and reached 74.7 gigawatts (GW) in a year to March 2016.
Iran’s power outlook; projects and demand

Baku, Azerbaijan, Oct. 24

By Dalga Khatinoglu – Trend:

During the last five years, Iran’s annual power generation growth stood at about 2.5 percent on average, about a half of planned volume and reached 74.7 gigawatts (GW) in a year to March 2016.

Now, Iran says the country needs $25 billion worth of investment in power sector (including grid expansion, distribution sector, etc) for realizing an annual 5.5-percent growth by 2021.

Deputy of Energy Minister Houshang Falahatian said that about $17 billion worth of investment is needed for power plants and $7.5 billion is needed in distribution and network sector, IRNA reported Oct.24.

According to an Energy Ministry’s document obtained by Trend, Iran is preparing to increase its nominal power generation capacity to 91.254 GW by March 2020.

The document didn’t include the statistics of a fiscal year to March 2021, but in case Iran wants to have a 5.5 percent yearly growth, the power output should stand at 95.33 GW.

Currently, Iran’s nominal power generation capacity stands at 75.9 GW, about 1.8 GW more than last fiscal year, however, the actual power generation capacity is around 59 GW.

The details of the projects indicate that about 5.7 GW of planned new power generation volume by March 2020 is renewables and hydropower. Excepting 3.463 GW of gas thermal power generation, the rest of power plants would be combined-cycle power plants (CCPP).

Currently the share of CCPPs in the power generation capacity is about 27 percent and the figure is expected to reach 50 percent by 2021, Iran’s Energy Ministry Hamid Chitchian told Trend in August 11.

Iran faced relatively massive power outrage during the summer of current year due to low generation growth during last years and higher demands.

Iran’s power demand increases by about 5 percent annually.

The country’s net power export was above 8 billion kWh in 2012, but during 210 days of current fiscal year the figure stood at 1.8 billion kWh.

Iran’s power export decreased by 26 percent, while its imports increased by 10 percent in the current fiscal year.

In case Iran reaches a 5.5 percent growth annually by 2021, it may resume the power export to the pre-sanctions level (2012).

Dalga Khatinoglu is the head of Trend Agency's Iran news service, follow him on Twitter:@dalgakhatinoglu

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