Vitaly Volkov, Deutsche Welle
The meeting between Tajik President Emomali Rakhmonov and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev is held in Dushanbe. Expert Arkady Dubnov said that the meeting will not solve major problems with Russian and Tajik interrelations.
At present, expert in Central Asia, Arkady Dubnov, is in Dushanbe. Dubnov answered Deutsche Welle's issues on the eve of bilateral meeting between Tajik and Russian Presidents.
Deutsche Welle: Relations between Tajik and Russian Presidents can not be called cordial within last years. What is the situation now?
Arkady Dubnov: I think that relations between Moscow and Dushanbe are not good now. Relations are burdened with different problems, including humanitarian, economic connected with military component. The last incident is connected with President Rakhmonov's decree to change status of the Russian language and ban to use it in official correspondence. This decision was made a week before Russian President's visit to Tajikistan. It was taken in Moscow as obvious challenge.
Certainly, one should not forget old problems. Tajik President is displeased with unwillingness of Russian capital and political leadership to fulfill Dushanbe's terms to invest in construction of hydroelectric facilities in Tajikistan. First, I mean construction of Rogun hydroelectric power station. Finally, Moscow is displeased with non-fulfillment of Tajik obligations concerning Sangtudin hydroelectric power station which is under construction with the help of Russia. Putting into operation its fourth block is cause for President Medvedev's visit to Dushanbe.
At present, according to information, Tajik debt for supplied energy of this station hits several millions of dollars. Certainly, there are long-term problems with negotiating process concerning new status of Russian 201-st military base in Tajikistan, as well as Dushanbe's unavailability to give other military-strategic facilities for Russia's use.
How is so decisive position of Dushanbe towards Moscow supported? Does Tajik President feel complete support of population in this issue or rely on support from the outside?
I think that Emomali Rakhmonov inadequate appreciates his power as both political player at foreign political scene and national leader inside Tajikistan. He overestimates attempt to balance between interests of western countries and Russia. He hopes that he still can derive dividends from western countries demonstrating implacability towards increase of Russian military and other presence in Central Asia.
I think that everything has changed recently. In the USA Barack Obama and his team do not intend to put relations with Russia to satisfy relations with Central Asia. I think Rakhmonov's state is problematic; it is possible to say threatening. New resistance uniting not only forces of Tajik armed opposition, but Rakhmonov's former influential supporters in People's Front, increases in Tajikistan. People's Front led Rakhmonov to power 17 years ago. All this symbiosis can extremely complicate situation in Tajikistan in the nearest future.
What results will be expected from the meeting of two leaders?
I do not think that bilateral component of Dmitry Medvedev's visit to Tajikistan, i.e. talks between Medvedev and Rakhmonov will give any results. Talks are likely to complete by concluding agreements to solve problems with Sangtudin hydroelectric power station and Tajik debts for this hydroelectric power station.
I think that compromise on achievement of 201-th Russian base will be found in the nearest future. Regarding the rest factors, significant results will not be achieved, including Russian support of water-energy problems between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan expected by Dushanbe. At present, Moscow will not support Dushanbe risking to spoil relations with Uzbekistan completely.
Is it necessary to pay attention to quadripartite meeting of Afghani, Pakistani, Russian and Tajik presidents scheduled for Friday?
Quadripartite meeting looks like important but as orderly meeting. The meeting is to demonstrate Moscow's involvement in problems of so-called AfPak, i.e. Afghani-Pakistani unit and Tajik participation looks like casual ensuring only negotiating platform. It is more convenient for leaders of these countries to meet in Tajikistan.
Certainly, any agreements on electric power export will be reached. But this summit should not be launched on this regards. I think that first it is image project of Kremlin trying to increase its impact in this region.
Author's opinion expressed in this article may be different of those held by Trend
