Azerbaijan, Baku, Dec. 4 / Trend E. Ostapenko /
The new U.S. strategy in Afghanistan can be effective, but fixing a date to withdraw troops can suit the Western Allies well, Afghanistan expert and German Otto-Suhr-Institute of Political Science Fellow Christian Tuschhoff told Trend .
"The new U.S strategy in Afghanistan is an improvement over the existing strategy which made a lot of mistakes," Tuschhoff said over the phone from Berlin.
U.S. President Barack Obama introduced a new strategy in Afghanistan this week. According to the strategy, additional military reinforcements consisting of 30,000 U.S. soldiers are planned to be deployed in the region in addition to the already stationed 68,000 soldiers. The reason for the move was ISAF Commander Stanley McChrystal's recent report stating that the situation in Afghanistan is deteriorating and the coalition will fail in its fight with the Taliban without additional forces.
The new strategy will be based on three foundations, including military actions against the Taliban, U.N. cooperation, international partners and the Afghan people, as well as a close partnership with Pakistan.
Obama has promised that the first units will be deployed in Afghanistan until Dec. 25 and their withdrawal will begin July 2011. Now the U.S. Senate must approve the president's decision. Obama also said the U.S. will facilitate the transition of power to Afghan state institutions -- both civilian and security structures.
Tuschhoff said that the new strategy in Afghanistan is basically a big shift because now they are trying to divide the "the good guys" from "the bad guys."
"The security situation in Afghanistan is difficult because thus far the military and police have basically been unable to distinguish between the civilian population that they want to protect from who they call 'insurgents' such as the Taliban and Al-Qaeda, who they want to fight," he added.
Tuschhoff said that so far the military has tried to hit whoever has attacked them, but most of the time it is difficult to distinguish between the attackers and the surrounding civilian population. Now they are trying to change by separating the two groups into "good guys" and "bad guys," he said.
However, fixing the date on withdrawing troops from Afghanistan for mid-2011 may be a signal to enemies to turn against their allies, Tuschhoff said.
Essentially it is a message to the Taliban and Al-Qaeda to say, "Okay, we are fighting very hard, but if you survive in two years we will be out anyway," he said.
"And the enemies get the message that if they basically can survive another two years, then they have won the conflict," Tuschhoff said.
More than 68,000 troops from the U.S. and 45,000 soldiers from 42 other countries under NATO command are deployed in Afghanistan.
The cost of one U.S. military unit staying in Afghanistan is $1 million per year, Vesti reported.
That is a difficult thing to accomplish simply because it is hard to imagine that Afghanistan can be stabilized in a two-year time frame given the enormous task ahead, the expert said.
The situation is getting more complicated as the civil mission of the Western allies in Afghanistan is far behind the military mission. The efforts of the West to promote a civil strategy in Afghanistan are not enough if the West is serious about its goal to stabilize the country, Tuschhoff said.
"Afghanistan is a huge country and we send about 400 police officers there to do the job. That is nothing," he said.
Western military experts think the number of Afghan soldiers and policemen must increase to over 400,000 people to control the situation and security in the country, RIA Novosti reported.
According to observers on the ground, the local armed forces do not have a sufficient number of military aircrafts, artillery, heavy armor or missile forces.
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