Azerbaijan, Baku, Feb. 19 / Trend U. Sadikhova /
A diplomatic breakthrough in U.S. relations with Syria is aimed at increasing the international pressure on Iran. But U.S experts doubt that Damascus will give up the alliance with Tehran to Washington benefits.
"I do not think that Washington will be able to transform Syrian policy overnight. The Syrian-Iranian relationship is now three decades old and Washington has few carrots to offer except for economic ones. I would expect both Washington and Syria to move a bit cautiously, not actively interfering with each other's plans but still pursuing very different agendas," the George Washington University professor on Middle East policy, Nathan Brown, told Trend via e-mail.
A day after the announcement of U.S. ambassador to Syria following the five-year absence by U.S President Barack Obama, the Deputy Secretary of State for Political Affairs William Burns spoke about Washington's desire and intentions to develop further cooperation with Syria at a meeting in Damascus.
Obama Administration hopes that diplomatic progress in relations with Damascus - a central strategic partner of Iran in the Arab world will play a positive role in resolving Middle East conflict and the situation in Iraq, with which Syria has a common border.
Syria, in its turn, argues that Washington should make every effort to force Israel to accept the Arab peace initiative.
Damascus remains a central player in establishing peace with Israel occupying the strategically important Golan Heights during the 1967 war.
However, observers believe that, be getting closer to Syria, Washington, first, wants to put pressure on Iran.
The Obama Administration is hoping to use its diplomatic engagement with Syria to increase pressure on Iran by trying to convey a sense of international isolation. This is unlikely to succeed, Washington Institute for Near East Policy Program on Arab Politics Aufzien Fellow and Director, David Schenker, said.
Syria and Iran have a 30-year strategic relationship, and share a common worldview vis-a-vis US involvement in the Middle East. These factors will hamper it, Schenker said.
The Syrian-Iranian friendship and support of the Syrian leadership for militant Palestinian movement Hamas and pro-Iranian Lebanese political party Hezbollah, which Washington considers terrorist, cause considerable resentment of the U.S.
In January, receiving the Syrian parliamentary speaker Mahmoud al-Abrash, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose country risks to face a new wave of sanctions due to its nuclear program, spoke about plans of Tehran and Damascus to establish new world order.
"Iran and Syria pursue a common mission - to create a new world order based on justice, humanity and faith in God," Ahmadinejad said.
Despite the economic benefits for Syria to improve relations with the United States, cooperation with Iran, first of all defines the role of Syria in the Middle East, Schenker said.
"The bilateral relationship with Iran provides Syria with a lot of benefits, in terms of foreign direct investment, weapons procurement, and someday perhaps, even a nuclear umbrella," Schenker told Trend via e-mail.
"The Asad regime sees itself as a resistance state and a central actor in the region,' he said.
However, the authoritarian regime in Syria has a fundamental problem with improving relations with Washington in line with the Obama Adminstration's current requirements, namely, ending support for terrorist groups, including Hizballah, U.S analyst said.
Syria believes it can play a facilitating role by positioning itself as a bridge between the US and Iran as well as groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah, U.S professor on Middle East history David Lesch said.
"Washington will not be able totally break the Syrian-Iranian relationship. Damascus hopes that the Obama administration can see the utility of Syria in this regard, thus leading to an improvement in US-Syria relations, a heightening of Syria's role in the region, and all of this without severing its relationship with Iran as the quid pro quo," David W. Lesch, Professor of Middle East History Trinity University, said.
For Syria, good relations with the U.S and Iran are not mutually exclusive.
"Washington had in recent years essentially demanded that Syria break it ties with Iran (and groups such as Hezbollah) as a perquisite for an improvement in relations with the US. Now, with the recent appointment of a US ambassador to return to Damascus, this no longer appears to be the case, and the Obama administration seems to be moving closer to the Syria view of its own role in the region, Lesch said.
Robert Ford, deputy U.S. ambassador to Iraq, will be appointed ambassador to Damascus after the Senate approves his candidature.
The previous U.S. ambassador was recalled the next day after former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri, well-known by pro-Syrian and anti-Iranian views, was assassinated in Beirut on February 14, 2005. The United States and several other countries have placed the responsibility for the murder on senior officials in the Syrian leadership.
Speaking to journalists in Damascus, Deputy State Secretary Burns said that Syria and the United States should overcome many problems, although Washington is optimistic on the issue of progress of bilateral relations.
Besides Burns, the representative of the State Department Dan Benjamin will hold talks on terrorism in Damascus, although the Bush administration has included Syria in the list of countries supporting terrorism.
I think full U.S-Syrian cooperation on these matters is unlikely but some lessening of tensions may be possible, Brown said.
"It is possible that tension will be weakened. Right now the US focus is on Iran, but it also focuses on Syrian support for Hezbollah in Lebanon as well as its hosting of Hamas. Both organizations are viewed in large part through the terrorism prism in Washington," Brown said.
It's going to be particularly difficult for the U.S in the coming months to work with Syria if the Asad regime actively works to undermine U.S pressure on the Iranian nuclear program, Schenker said.
"But it is unlikely that cooperation with Syrian leadership on al-Qaeda alone would have a significant positive impact on the bilateral relationship. By ceasing to support Hamas and Hezbollah and equipping militants in Iraq, Syria will lose its impact in the region," Schenker said.
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