Rufiz Hafizoglu, Trend Middle East Desk Head
Until now Israel was the hegemonic power in the Middle East. However, with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's announcement that his country is enriching uranium to 20-percent Feb.11, a new hegemonic player has risen.
Indeed, the struggle for hegemony among Middle Eastern countries is nothing new.
If, before the 2008 events in the Gaza Strip, complete and absolute hegemony in the region belonged to Israel, its hegemony ended from the beginning of its military activities.
Being the strongest in the region, economically and militarily, the Israeli army expected Gaza's capitulation in three days. However, Israel failed to achieve it because Hamas, unlike before, has been not just a movement rallying the streets; now, Israel was faced with more serious and disciplined army.
Moreover, the events in the Gaza Strip have interesting moments that were not taken into account.
If Israel has been interfering in the Gaza Strip in any way, Hamas or any other local groups carried out terrorist acts in response to Israeli operations. Although, Hamas or other local groups had the opportunity to undertake a terrorist act inside Israel during the 22-day war, they didn't.
Thus, Hamas has shaken the international prestige of Israel. Turkey struck the biggest shock to Israel, as its military and political ally in the region. With the events in the Gaza Strip a new period began; period of mutual distrust between Israel and Turkey.
The tensions in the Ankara - Tel Aviv relations caused a new period in the Arab-Turkish and Persian-Turkish relations.
However, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and some Gulf countries, fought together with Israel against Iran because, according to some Arab states, Iran's nuclear program poses a real threat to the region.
The most interesting thing is that after the Gaza Strip events, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Israeli television that Iran's nuclear program poses a threat to the region and Israel is ready to cooperate with the Arab world. His words marked the beginning of an Arab-Jewish alliance.
But, Iraq, which turned into a "headache" for the entire region, was forgotten amid Israel, Iran and Arab countries, as well as amid Ankara, which is in a position to decide the fate of the region.
Raging from the transition of the Turkish political elite from the nationalists to liberal Islamists in 2002, Ankara has began even stronger claim on the region. Turkey has laid claim to the region at the time of other governments as well, but Ankara has never showed it openly.
Despite different opinions about the Justice and Development Party (AKP), the party took an important part in achieving a number of successes both in domestic and foreign policy. Exposure of an illegal organization that received the status of "state within a state," which could expose the previous government, is the biggest success of the domestic policy.
Moreover, the AKP has prevented a "Balyoz" coup, sixth in the country. Under this plan, after exploding mosques Fatih Dzhamisi and Bayazid in Istanbul during Friday prayers, attacking on a military museum of the country, blowing up several fighter aircrafts belonging to Air Forces of Turkey and laying the blame on Greece, the Turkish Armed Forces had to take advantage of the resulting chaos in the country and overthrow the government. According to the newspaper, the preparation and implementation of the plan involved the former general in the Armed Forces of Turkey Chetin Dogan, and this plan was prepared in 2002-2003. According to the plan, after the military coup in Turkey, mass arrests had to begin.
This abortive plan is an indication of Ankara's stable domestic policy in the face of the AKP.
Ankara's increasing influence in the region suggests that regardless of who will be in power in the future, Turkey will not abandon its intention to be a leader in the region. Why would Turkey seek to join the European Union, it is very well aware that it is better to be first in the Middle East than the last in the EU.
As for Iraq, radical changes are expected to take place in the region after the parliamentary elections on March 7. Many political observers even state that after the elections Iraq will be broken up and transformed into a federation.
The real situation in Iraq gives grounds to think that the upcoming elections will not be dominated by religious parties, but temporary, which will win. The main struggle in the elections will be between the Vice President Tariq Al-Hashemi and Iyad Allawi.
It is highly likely that after these elections, secular party representative Allawi will take the post of prime minister and al-Hashemi the presidency.
Some interesting events occurred before and on the eve of elections. The most memorable event was the meeting between Saudi Arabia King Iyad Allawi and the head of the National Security Committee of Saudi Arabia. After the meeting, Saudi Arabia will undoubtedly support Allawi.
Saudi Arabia officials have repeatedly proposed to place their troops in Iraq to protect Iraqi Sunnis.
Saudi Arabia tries to isolate Iraq and pressure Iran. Naturally, in this regard, Saudi Arabia does not operate independently, but with its eternal ally the United States.
The main reasons Saudi Arabia does not support al-Hashimi, is because of al-Hashimi's tendency towards Turkey.
After a meeting with Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, al-Hashimi left the Islamic Party and created a new party called, HİZBUL TACDİD. Most political leaders close to Hashemi became members of other parties.
Pro-Iranian Shiites won in the elections after the collapse of Iraq. The United States will not support the Shia in these elections.
After the parliamentary elections, the Kurdish administration in northern Iraq will be in a disadvantaged situation. There is a probability that the Kurds, holding a strong position towards Turkey, as opposed to the Arabs, will not take the trend towards Saudi Arabia or Iran. The most ideal option for them will be to look to Ankara. Naturally, Ankara, taking advantage of this convergence, will also want to solve the problem of the Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK).
Despite the fact that many officials in Baghdad talk about stability in the country, Iraq is on its way to a new, more serious and bloody war. But the events after the occupation will be simply incomparable with the pending war.
