Azerbaijan, Baku, May 15 / Trend U. Sadikhova/
The resignation of the head of the largest opposition party in Turkey will not lead to the party's failure in the upcoming parliamentary elections, Turkish Center for International Relations and Strategic Analysis (TURKSAM) Director Sinan Ogan said. Ogan believes that a new leader arriving to the Republican People's Party (CHP) will contribute to updating its platform of activities and even improve its importance the upcoming parliamentary elections.
"The new leader coming to the party, which has a well established system, can open a 'second breath' in the party," Ogan told Trend over the telephone from Ankara. "Although Baykal is an experienced politician, who headed the party 20 years, a new person will help upgrade the party's activities."
Former leader of the party, Deniz Baykal, resigned Monday after it became known that he was involved in a sex scandal.
The Turkish government denied any involvement in his resignation, and vowed not to react to information about the scandal. The Turkish Hurriyet newspaper wrote with reference to Baykal's press service that a possible successor to the post of party chairman could be Kamal Kilijdaroglu.
Besides Kilijdaroglu, MP Haluk Koch, businessman Umut Oran and academician Suheyil Batum also hope to holdthe post of the head of Turkey's largest opposition party.
The final vote to elect a new leader will be held May 22.
Speaking in opposition to the ruling Justice and Development Party's (AKP) policy in the 2007 general election, the CHP formed a coalition with the Democratic Left Party. The coalition received 22 percent of voters and 112 members won seats.
Ogan believes if Kilijdaroglu becomes the new leader, the party will perform well in the upcoming parliamentary elections in 2011.
AKP's chances under the leadership of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan are small, Ogan said.
"Like any party ruling several years, the AKP will not be able to receive enough votes in the upcoming elections. Progress by the People's Movement Party seems most likely," he added.
Regarding the CHP's chances, Ogan said it all depends on whether Baykal will be able to prove his innocence in the scandal.
"The chance that Baykal will return to his post is 50-50. If Baykal can prove that all this was compromising against him, and return to his post, then the party will be able to get enough votes. However, if the incident will remain unchanged, then the party will face negative consequences. The Turkish people are Muslim and will not tolerate this," Ogan said.
Meanwhile, there is no guarantee that Baykal has resigned once and for all from his post, as at any moment he can run again, Ogan added.
However, the political turmoil does not mean that the country can change to a one-party rule system.
"Turkish parties have been formed on the basis of ideologies, so none of them will lose its positions," Ogan said.