Azerbaijan, Baku, Oct. 12 / Trend News, T.Konyayeva /
If the West decides to impose sanctions against Iran, the country may take reciprocal steps, which can damage the economy of the Western countries, but in the end the loser will be Iran, Paul Sullivan, Professor of Economics at the National Defense University, said on his own .
"If they [Iran] engage in behavior that will damage western economies then this damage could spread to China, Japan and more. Iran would lose in the end," Dr. Sullivan wrote in an e-mail to Trend News.
U.S. and other Western countries accuse Iran of developing nuclear weapons for military purposes under the guise of peaceful nuclear energy program and have repeatedly warned that if by the end of the year will not be able to reach an agreement to freeze Iran's uranium enrichment program, the country may face new sanctions.
Sullivan thinks that Iran has many options to respond to possible sanctions. All could escalate things way beyond where most everyone would like them to be, he said.
"They could cause troubles in Iraq, Afghanistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and more through their networks in those countries," said Sullivan.
As a reciprocal step, it could temporarily suspend oil exports, but this would not last long given how much they rely on oil revenues for their survival, the expert added.
However, according to Iranian expert Sadig Zibakalam, currently it is impossible to make any predictions about the result of further negotiations between Iran and the countries of the Six, sanctions and the Iranian reaction.
"Now it is not necessary to predict the result of negotiations, sanctions and possible Iranian reactions to them, because the sides approach the negotiations with other expectations," Zibakalam, Doctor of Political Sciences at the University of Tehran, told Trend News by telephone from Tehran.
He also added that the draft of the U.S. Senate on the new package of sanctions is not related to the U.S. government: without Obama's approval, its use will be impossible.
Last week, CNN reported that the U.S. President Administration is developing a package of sanctions against Iran if diplomatic efforts to convince Tehran to give up its nuclear program fail.
According to Zibakalam, if the sides come to a common denominator after last week's negotiations between Iran and the "Six", as well as the next round of discussions arranged for Nov. 1, it should return the dossier on Iran's nuclear program from UN Security Council to the IAEA Board of Governors.
On Oct.1, Geneva hosted a meeting between the European Union High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy, Javier Solana and the Iranian Supreme Council for National Security Secretary General, Saeed Jalili, with the participation of political directors of the "Six" on Iran's nuclear program (Russia, the United States, Britain, France, China and Germany). All participants of the talks, including representatives of Iran, agreed that the meeting was constructive.
Sullivan believes that Iranian best bets for a win-win situation in all of this is to negotiate a peaceful solution that will lead to greater investments and technology flows toward their natural gas fields, refineries, and other industries, which will create jobs, prosperity and more in return for a full opening of their nuclear facilities to the international community and not just the IAEA.
"Now is the time for greater openness and credibility building, said the expert. - Iran can't keep poking at massively powerful countries and expect no response. The window may just be closing a lot quicker than they may think. When it is closed then things might get rather difficult."
