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Review of monetary sector in Azerbaijan (January-February 2017)

Analysis Materials 12 April 2017 17:15 (UTC +04:00)

Currency reserves of the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) increased by $42.1 million (0.97 percent) to $4,369.3 million in February as compared to January. CBA’s reserves increased by 8.5 percent in February 2017 as compared to the same period of 2016.

Currency reserves of the CBA decreased by $1,042.3 million or 20.78 percent during 2016 as compared to 2015.

The reduction in CBA’s currency reserves began in July 2014. The reduction was at a slower rate (within the range of $20-50 million) at the beginning, but a sharp decline in reserves began in December 2014 due to an increase in demand for dollar in the country.

During 2016, the volume of currency reserves increased by 0.9 percent in March, 1.35 percent in April, 3.97 percent in May, 0.7 percent in August and 0.14 percent in November.

Currency market and manat rate

The Azerbaijani national currency rate does not depend on the oil price, Rufat Aslanli, chairman of the Board of Directors of the Financial Market Supervisory Authority, said.

"Azerbaijan fully switched to the floating manat rate January 12, 2017 and the country does not have a long statistical history that would allow analyzing the trend of changing the official exchange rate,” he added. “The ratio of the dollar rate to the euro rate or the euro rate to the yen rate can be analyzed because a floating exchange rate has been observed for a long time."

He added that there is no need of looking for a connection between the exchange rate of manat and the oil price.

"When we established the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ), we knew that we would receive a currency a year later, five times more than the country’s GDP,” he said. “We sterilized this currency. It was transferred to SOFAZ, rather than to the economy. The foreign currency did not affect the prices as it was not delivered to the market.”

Aslanli said that oil prices affect the stability of the country’s economy, rather than the official exchange rate of manat.

In February 2017, the currencies of the main trade partners of Azerbaijan (EU, Russia, Turkey) rose in price to the Azerbaijani currency.

The highest dollar-manat rate (1.92 AZN) in the Azerbaijani history was observed February 1-2, 2017.

The CBA has been conducting a currency auction in a new format, namely, in the format of a unilateral sale of currency since January 2017. According to the new mechanism, the official rate of the manat on the next day is determined on the basis of the average rate for deals concluded with commercial banks in the interbank foreign exchange market and auctions.

The auctions will be held three times a week. From now on, the CBA will set in advance the monthly volume of the currency put up for auction. The four-percent margin (in accordance with the CBA official rate), used in the currency exchange rate set by the banks, is canceled.

Azerbaijani monetary market

The amount of cash money supply (M0) increased by 20.8 percent for the year from 4,960.2 million manat in February 2016 to 5,993.2 million manat in February 2017. M0 increased by 1.2 percent compared to the previous month.

The transaction money (M1) increased by 21.3 percent for the year.

The transaction money (M1) increased by 0.7 percent and amounted to 8,240.2 million manat in February 2017 compared to January 2017.

The money supply rate (M2) (cash in circulation (outside banks) and remainders in the national currency on accounts of non-financial organizations, financial organizations (excluding credit organizations) and physical entities) amounted to 10.764 million manat in February 2017 increasing by 23.9 percent for the year.

As of February 2017, Broad Money Supply (M3) totaled 20,151.2 million manat or by 2.8 percent more compared to the same period of 2016 and by 4.2 percent less than in January 2017.

Parameters of monetary market, in million manat:

Monetary market parameters

Volume, February 2017

Money mass in extensive understating (М3)

20151,2

Money mass on manat (М2)

10764

Cash in manat (М0)

5993,2

Non-cash in manat

4770,8

The bank reserves amounted to 1,773.7 million manat in Azerbaijan as of March 1, 2017, which is by 1.9 percent less than in February 2017 (1,808.3 billion manat).

The report said that the broad monetary base in the country as of late February 2017 amounted to 8,336.4 million manat or by 13.9 percent more compared to the same period of 2016. This figure decreased by 4.53 percent compared to the previous month.

According to the CBA, as of Feb. 1, 2017, the monetary base in manat amounted to 6.987 million manat compared to 6,388.5 million manat as of Feb.1, 2016.

The volume of currency in circulation amounted to 6,534.3 million manat during the reporting period, while this figure stood at 5,499.1 million manat as of March 1, 2016.

The ratio of cash in circulation to monetary base as of March 1, 2017 amounted to 78.4 percent, increasing by 3.3 percentage points compared to the same period of 2016.

Azerbaijan’s loan market

As of February 2017, the Azerbaijani credit organizations' loans reached 15,878.6 million manat.

This figure decreased by 21.9 percent for the year and by 4.9 percent for the month.

Loans in Azerbaijan’s national currency prevail in the structure of the issued loans.

Around 52.6 percent (8,356.1 million manat) of all loans account for those loans. During the year, their volume decreased by 17.1 percent. The remaining funds are foreign currency loans (47.4 percent, or 7,522.5 million manat), their volume decreased by 26.5 percent compared to February 2016.

This ratio was 73 and 27 percent in early 2015. But the share of foreign currency loans began increasing, reaching 49.3 percent as of the year after the February devaluation of the manat.

However, Azerbaijan’s Financial Market Supervisory Authority established a moratorium on the issuance of consumer loans in foreign currency to the individuals who do not have foreign exchange earnings and bank deposits since April 2016 and imposed a ban on mortgage loans in foreign currency since May 2016.

In February 2017, the volume of overdue loans in Azerbaijani national currency reached 703 million manat, which is by 4.6 percent more compared to February 2016.

The share of overdue loans in Azerbaijani manat reached 4.4 percent of the loan portfolio of the country’s banks and non-banking credit organizations as of February 2017, the report said.

Overdue loans in foreign currency amounted to 853.4 million manat, which is by 29.8 percent more during the same period, and their share reached 5.37 percent.

In general, the total volume of overdue loans in Azerbaijan amounted to 1,556.4 million manat (17.1 percent more for the year). The share of those loans reached 9.8 percent.

As of late February 2017, the volume of short-term loans amounted to 3,354.1 million manat (including overdue loans worth 355.4 million manat), the volume of long term loans amounted to 12,524.4 million manat (including 1,201.1 million manat of overdue loans).

According to the CBA, the credit portfolio of the state banks in the country amounted to 4,311.5 million manat with a specific weight of 27.2 percent, while private banks issued loans worth 11,112.7 million manat with a specific weight of 70 percent, where 4,128.6 million manat falls to the share of banks with foreign capital. The remaining 2.9 percent falls to the share of non-bank credit organizations, which issued 454.4 million manat.

In February 2017, Azerbaijani banks decreased the issuance of consumer loans by 4.91 percent and reached 5,528.6 million manat compared to January 2017, the CBA report said.

According to the CBA report, consumer lending declined by 28.6 percent for the year.

The decline in the volume of consumer loans began after the first devaluation of manat in Azerbaijan (the US dollar rate increased by almost 34 percent on Feb. 21, 2015).

About 34.8 percent of the Azerbaijani banks’ total loan portfolio accounted for consumer loans as of February 2017, while this figure was 38.1 percent in February 2016.

Trade and services (14.6 percent or 2,313.4 million manat) ranked second, and the construction and real estate sector (12 percent or 1,910.8 million manat) ranked third in a total loan portfolio of the banks.

The share of loans for transportation and communication was 8 percent of total loans (1,269.7 million manat), the share of loans for industrial and production sector was 7.9 percent (1,256.9 million manat), and the share of loans for agriculture and processing was 2.8 percent (449.3 million manat).

The loans issued in energy, chemistry, and natural resources decreased in February 2017.

Around 2.6 percent or 416.1million manat accounted for this sector.

Lending to the Azerbaijani districts decreased by 28.1 percent up to 2,346.8 million manat in February 2017 compared to February 2016.

According to the CBA report, the volumes of loans issued in the districts are being reduced amid general decline in lending in the country by 21.9 percent or 4.45 billion manat.

According to the CBA, the loans worth 13,531.76 million manat were issued in Baku in February 2017 that is by 5.77 times more than in the districts. Around 6,747.9 million manat (49.9 percent) accounted for the loans in national currency.

For comparison: as of February 2016, borrowers received loans worth 17.13 billion manat in Baku, of which almost 8 billion manat (46.5 percent) accounted for the loans in national currency.

The average annual interest rate on loans in the country as of February 2017 was 10.7 percent, while 9.2 percent in Baku.

Districts

Lending volume

Average interest rate

Including manat

Absheron

495674,5

335891,3

15,9

Aran

578422,2

378023,9

22,3

Mountain Shirvan

87952,9

58756,2

21,9

Ganja-Gazakh

495878,9

330517,1

19,2

Guba-Khachmaz

179999,5

128165,2

19,2

Lankaran

205520,5

127141,8

21,6

Seki-Zagatala

156392,6

108956,5

21,5

Upper-Karabakh

37890,2

33758,2

17,5

Kalbajar-Lachin

829,2

662,1

12,3

Nakhchivan

108249,5

106309,1

10,0

The average interest rate on deposits in Azerbaijani banks decreased in national currency and foreign currency in February 2017 compared to February 2016, the report said.

The average rate on deposits in manat amounted to 12.42 percent in February 2017 compared to 12.28 percent in January 2017 and 13.17 percent in February 2016.

The average rate on loans in foreign currency amounted to 8.81 percent in February 2017 compared to 8.9 percent in January 2017 and 12.34 percent in February 2016.

The legal entities received manat loans at an average rate of 8.86 percent in February 2017 compared to 8.8 percent in January 2017 and 9.18 percent in February 2016.

The average rate on bank lending to the corporate clients in foreign currency amounted to 5.64 percent in February 2017 compared to 5.7 percent in January 2017 and 8.86 percent in February 2016.

As of February 2017, the average rate on manat loans to physical entities amounted to 16.00 percent compared to 15.79 percent in January 2016 and 17.24 percent as of February 2016.

The average rate on bank lending to the individual customers in foreign currency was 16.85 percent compared to 16.95 percent and 20.19 percent accordingly.

Mortgage lending

The agent banks of the Azerbaijan Mortgage Fund (AMF) issued 335 loans worth over 21 million manat in February 2017.

In total, AMF’s authorized lending organizations issued 18,497 mortgage loans worth 762.4 million manat from 2006 till February 2017.

According to the CBA report, banks issued mortgage loans worth 14.8 million manat in February 2017.

The total amount of refinancing the loans issued by banks earlier amounted to 0.2 million manat.

The placement of mortgage bonds worth 20 million manat also resumed in February 2017.

However, the AMF did not receive budgetary funds for social mortgage in February 2017.

The average monthly amount of the loan delivered by the AMF’s authorized banks was 41,651.8 manat in February 2017 (40,880.1 manat in February 2016). The average period of the loan is 280 months (280 months a year earlier). The average annual interest rate is 6.67 percent (6.71 percent a year earlier). The average monthly amount for payments is 299.4 manat (297.2 manat a year earlier).

According to the new mortgage loan issuance order, approved in June 2016, an ordinary mortgage loan will be issued only to Azerbaijani citizens and only in the national currency for a term from 3 years to 25 years, while preferential mortgage - up to 30 years to purchase a house, owned by the citizen. Interest rates on conventional mortgage must not exceed eight percent, while 4 percent per annum in preferential mortgage loan.

The maximum amount of the mortgage loan (including preferential) is determined by Azerbaijan Mortgage Fund JSC and must not exceed the cost of repaired housing with an average of 100 square meters in zone #7 in Baku. Annual interest rates on the loan are determined by the company’s Supervisory Board.

The amount of preferential mortgage loan must be 85 percent of the cost of purchased housing by the date of the loan issuance, except for cases when a borrower appeals to decrease the loan amount. The amount of conventional mortgage loan must not be less than 75 percent and more than 85 percent of the cost of purchased housing by the moment of the loan issuance, except for the cases when a borrower appeals to decrease the loan amount.

The monthly payment for a mortgage loan must not exceed 70 percent of a debtor's monthly income. The age of the borrower must not exceed the retirement age according to the legislation. An agreement on life insurance is required.

The family members of war victims, national heroes, internally displaced people, civil servants with at least a three years' experience, teachers of secondary schools with at least a five-year service term, PhDs, doctors of science and those having special merits in sport as well as the military with at least a three-year service term can use the preferential conditions. Each family having the right to such a mortgage loan can use it only once.

Around 20 out of 32 banks in the country, as well as 16 insurance companies [in total 21] and two appraisal organizations are the authorized banks of the Azerbaijan Mortgage Fund.

Azerbaijan’s banking sector

The economic cycles, seasonal factors and the attitude of investors, dictated by a variety of causes, impact on the dynamics of deposits.

As of late February 2017, the total amount of deposits of physical and legal entities drawn by the Azerbaijani credit organizations amounted to 21,761.5 million manat.

The deposit base of banks decreased by 6.26 percent in February 2017, but increased by 2.24 percent per annum.

The amount of deposits in the Azerbaijani national currency – manat reached 5.085 million manat as of February 2017, 2,284.6 million manat of which accounted for demand deposits, 2,800.4 million manat - term deposits, the report said.

According to the report, the deposits in freely convertible currency reached 16,676.5 million manat including 5,444.1 million manat - demand deposits, 11,232.4 million manat - term deposits.

Thus, as of March 1, 2017, 23.4 percent accounted for the deposits in manat, 76.6 percent of the total deposit base of banks accounted for foreign currency.

As of March 1, 2016, 19.6 percent accounted for the deposits in manat, 80.4 percent of the total deposit base of banks accounted for foreign currency.

According to the report, the physical entities' deposits reached 7,101.8 million manat in February 2017.

Most of the physical entities' deposits accounted for the ones in the foreign currency – 79.4 percent or 5,638.1 million manat, the report said.

According to the report, the population’s deposits decreased by 8.3 percent for the month, while by 12.1 percent per annum.

The total volume of the legal entities’ deposits in Azerbaijani banks reached 14,659.7 million manat or by 11 percent (13,208.2 million manat) more than in February 2016, the report said.

As of late February 2017, the amount of the Azerbaijani financial organizations’ deposits reached 5,332.6 million manat compared to 6.272 million manat as of February 2016.

The amount of the Azerbaijani non-financial organizations’ deposits reached 9,327.1 million manat compared to 6,936.2 million manat as of February 2016.

The population’s bank deposits in Azerbaijani districts (except for Baku) totaled 505.38 million manat in February 2017, that is, 7.12 percent of all deposits, the report said.

According to the CBA report, the share of bank deposits in districts was 6.53 percent (527.45 million manat) in February 2016.

As of early March 2017, the amount of deposits in Baku amounted to 6,596.4 million manat, while the deposits in the national currency – 1,189.3 million manat.

According to the report, the national currency savings of the residents of Azerbaijani districts amounted to 274.4 million manat or 54.3 percent of all deposits in the banks in the districts in the reporting period.

For comparison, this figure amounted to 40.6 percent of total deposits in the districts in February 2016.

As of February 2017, the average annual deposit rate throughout the country reached 4.7 percent while 4.6 percent in Baku.

Distribution of bank deposits in Azerbaijani districts:

Districts

Amount of deposits (thousand manat)

Average interest rate (%)

Absheron

161317,7

6,2

Aran

86752,6

4,4

Mountain Shirvan

12074,3

5,7

Ganja-Gazakh

100569,1

5,9

Guba-Khachmaz

33377,6

5,8

Lankaran

40233,0

5,5

Seki-Zagatala

31291,6

4,2

Upper-Karabakh

6179,9

3,3

Kalbajar-Lachin

140,0

2,2

Nakhchivan

33474,9

2,0

The average interest rate on deposits in Azerbaijani banks decreased in national currency and foreign currency in February 2017 compared to February 2016, the report said.

The average rate on deposits in manat amounted to 6.61 percent in February 2017 compared to 6.19 percent in January 2017 and 7.83 percent in February 2016.

The average rate on deposits in foreign currency amounted to 4.22 percent in February 2017 compared to 4.4 percent in January 2016 and 6.99 percent in February 2016.

The banks drew deposits of legal entities in manat in the amount of 3.81 percent per annum in February 2017 compared to 3.37 percent in January 2017 and 6.00 percent in February 2016.

The funds on the accounts denominated in the foreign currency brought 3.02 percent to legal entities in February 2017, 3.05 percent in January 2017 and 3.15 percent in February 2016.

As of March 1, 2017, the average interest rate on deposits of physical entities in manat made up 10.53 percent compared to 10.22 percent as of late January 2016 and 8.96 percent as of February 2016.

The interest rates on deposits of physical entities in foreign currency are as follows: 5.02 percent in February 2017, 5.25 percent in January 2017 and 8.29 percent in February 2016.

Financial activity of banks

Sixteen of Azerbaijani banks have foreign capital, said a report on the country’s banking sector published by Azerbaijan’s Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FIMSA).

The share of foreign shareholders in seven of them exceeds 50 percent of the authorized capital, according to FIMSA.

There are two branches of foreign banks – Bank Melli Iran and National Bank of Pakistan – in Azerbaijan.

As of late February, 32 banks operated in Azerbaijan, including two state-owned ones, FIMSA said.

During the period, 563 branches and 135 bank departments operated in Azerbaijan, as compared to 32 banks with 569 branches and 132 departments in late January.

The report said that 16,662 people worked in Azerbaijan’s banking sector in late February compared to 16,928 people as of late January and 16,947 in early January 2017. The number of employees of the banking sector has decreased by 1.7 percent since the beginning of 2017.

Banks in Azerbaijan earned a net profit of 50 million manat in February 2017.

In January 2017, banks in Azerbaijan had cumulative net loss of 496 million manat, while in 2016 their loss totaled 1.67 billion manat.

In February 2017, the Azerbaijani banking sector’s income from credit interest amounted to 258.6 million manat, while interest expense on deposits amounted to 66.6 percent. The net interest income of the Azerbaijani banking sector as of late February 2017 was 178.1 million manat, and the net operating income was 197.3 million manat.

The banking sector’s deductions for creating special reserves to cover possible losses on assets decreased by 32.3 percent during February 2017 and amounted to 143.6 million manat.

For comparison, during January 2017, this figure was 212 million manat.

The total capital of the Azerbaijani banking sector amounted to almost 2.65 billion manat in February 2017.

According to the report, the capitalization of banks increased by 38.7 percent in January-February 2017 compared to late 2016.

The total assets of the sector amounted to almost 30.42 billion manat as of late February compared to 31.44 billion manat as of late 2016.

As of late February, the banks’ cash amounted to 1.09 billion manat (1.08 billion manat – as of the year), while investments in securities - 367.3 million manat compared to 414.6 million manat as of late 2016.

The banks’ loan portfolio reached 15.4 billion manat as of the year, while this figure amounted to 15.94 billion manat by the end of 2016.

The volume of reserves created to pay off possible losses on issued loans has increased by 1.2 percent since early 2017 up to 1.71 billion manat.

The deposit portfolio of the banking sector in the reporting period amounted to 16.21 billion manat (16.41 billion manat by late 2016), including 7.08 billion manat - deposits of physical entities, 9.13 billion manat - deposits of legal entities.

The CBA net liabilities to the Azerbaijani government amounted to almost 865.5 million manat in late February 2017.

Payment card market

The total turnover on payment cards via ATMs and POS-terminals amounted to 1.116 million manat in Azerbaijan in February 2017 or by 13.8 percent more than in February 2016.

According to the report, the total number of transactions with payment cards reached 7,151 units increasing by 9.9 percent for the year.

The number of transactions on debit cards reached 6.368 million units totaling 999 million manat in the country and beyond the country during the reporting period.

Of the total number of transactions, 4.535 million transactions amounting to 857 million manat were implemented on debit cards via ATMs within the country, and around 820,000 transactions amounting to 81 million manat via POS-terminals.

As much as 783,000 transactions worth 118 million manat were made on credit cards in the country and beyond the country in February 2017.

Of the total number of transactions on credit cards, 156,000 transactions worth 42 million manat were implemented via ATMs and there were 298,000 transactions worth 33 million manat via POS-terminals.

The number of payment cards in Azerbaijan increased by 0.77 percent in February 2017 and reached up to 5,429 units compared to February 2016.

Of the total number of cards, 4,803 units accounted for debit cards, in particular, 2,545 - social cards, 1,586 - salary cards, 672,000 - other cards. The number of credit cards was 626,000.

As of March 1, 2017, as many as 2,463 ATMs operated in the country of which 1,333 are located in Baku and 1,130 in other cities and districts of the country. The total number decreased by 159 units or 6.1 percent for the year compared to February 2016.

The number of POS-terminals is 70,950 units of which 39,486 are installed in Baku and 31,464 units in other cities and districts as of late February 2017.

The number of POS-terminals has decreased by 6,300 units or 8.2 percent for the year.

Stock market

The total turnover of exchange transactions on all instruments at the Baku Stock Exchange exceeded 1.4 billion manat in February 2017, that is, by almost 4 times more than in February 2016.

The volume of the state securities market totaled 162.2 million manat (28.4 percent more for the year), while the turnover of corporate securities market reached almost 690 million manat (36 times more).

The volume of derivatives market reached 594 million manat (2.4 times more).

Comparative table on the trades results in the state and corporate sectors at the Baku Stock Exchange:

Market segments

Jan.-Feb. 2017

Jan.-Feb. 2016

Volume of transactions, AZN

Number of deals

Volume of transactions, AZN

Number of deals

I. State Securities Market

162 204 128,34

43

126 315 261,92

35

State bonds of finance ministry

35 084 120,46

23

126 315 261,92

35

Initial placement

31 986 002,6

17

52 682 476,51

12

secondary market

3 098 117,86

6

73 632 785,41

23

Notes (Central Bank)

127 120 007,88

20

0

0

Initial placement

127 120 007,88

20

-

-

secondary market

-

-

-

-

II. Market of shares

600 479 299,49

249

5 547 428,41

197

Initial placement

600 000 000,21

2

5 000 000

4

secondary market

479 299,28

247

547 428,41

193

III. Debt market

87 364 709,85

167

13 546 642,07

27

Mortgage bonds (Initial placement)

30 035 000

2

-

-

Mortgage bonds (secondary market)

10 010 840

1

1 399 428,83

1

Other corporate bonds

(initial placement)

-

-

3 460 888,45

13

Other corporate bonds

(secondary market)

47 318 869,85

164

8 686 324,79

13

- including market makers

545 340

-

1 687 722,86

-

IV. REPO transactions

2 025 726,45

3

0

0

Repo transactions of the Central Bank

-

-

-

-

Other repo transactions

2 025 726,45

3

-

-

V. Derivatives market

593 961 608,52

10 080

243 617 756,3

4 386

- currency

565 159 329,22

9 497

227 894 357

3 650

- goods

28 802 279,3

583

15 723 399

736

Total

1 446 035 472,65

10 542

389 027 088,71

4 645

The Azerbaijani National Depository Center registered 32 off-exchange transactions in the amount of 184.17 million manat at face value in February 2017.

The National Depository Center registered 13 deals worth 641,720 manat and the volume of off-exchange transactions increased by almost 287 times compared to January 2017.

Around 253 purchase-sale transactions of shares in the amount of 155.61 million manat at face value were registered by the National Depository Center in February 2017, which is by 8.7 times more than in January 2017.

For comparison, the National Depository Center registered 183 deals worth 17.88 million manat in January 2017.

Some 34 transactions on the additional issue worth almost 270.4 million manat (face value) were also registered. The volume of such deals decreased by almost 2.4 times for the month compared to January 2017 (9 deals worth 648.56 million manat).

Azerbaijani National Depository Center was established September 18, 1997.

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