10 February 2012, 19:48 (GMT+04:00)

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President feels threat of both former supporters and opponents: expert

Dmitry Alyayev, Deutsche Welle

Two members of national security from the Tajik President Emomali Rakhmonov's team died within short time. They were former emergency situations minister Mirzo Zioyev and ex-internal minister Mahmadnazar Salihov. New clash occurred in Rasht on Thursday.

According to agencies, new armed clash occurred 130 kilometers from Dushanbe near Nurabad last Thursday. Strangers attacked post of Tajik national guards. As a result of exchange of fire, five assailants were killed. According to information of high-ranking official in Tajik law enforcement agencies cited by Interfax, passports of Russian citizens were found on killed people.

It is another big armed clash in Tajikistan within the last days. Clashes between Tajik members of national securityormer emergency situations minister Mirzo Zioyev occurred near Nurabad on July 8-11. Zioyev, being one of leading field commander in Tajik opposition during Civil War and had great influence in the Rasht valley, died.   and supporters of f

Zioyev is not the only opposition politician killed recently. Earlier, Mahmadnazar Salihov died within strange circumstances. Salihov was ex-internal minister. 

According to experts, Emomali Rakhmonov could be aware of last strange deaths of heads of Tajik law enforcement agencies. There is another version connected with drugs traffic. 

It dealt about these two versions during interview with expert on central Asia, director of extreme journalistic center Oleg Panfilov. 

Deutsche Welle: What is the reason of the last events in Tajikistan?

Oleg Panfilov: I think that current situation deals with the Tajik president smoothing out political territory. Regular period is likely to take place in Tajikistan when the president felt treat from both his ex-opponents and supporters. These processes occur periodically. Processes began fater Civil War in 1997. That time ex-internal minister Yakub Salimov, commander of presidential guards Gaffur Mirzoev, chairman of democratic party Mahmadruzi Iskandarov and many other people being on different sides in that civil war. But the president and his officials considered them dangerous people. 

Perhaps, former emergency situations minister Mirzo Zioyev, commanding opposition forces during civil war, and ex-internal minister were either killed or led to suicide. But I suspect that they were killed because they had relation to any process on preparation, coups or events connected with addressing of numerous people.

This tension began in Tajikistan in 2008. It is likely t be connected with economic crisis, especially crisis in the territory of Russia. Great number of Tajik guest workers obliged to return to Tajikistan. Unemployment, low levels of life, high prices promote increasing tension in Tajikistan. Rakhmonov and his officials fear of it.  

So, these are not last incidents. One can expect for any similar events. Nobody knows whether there will be arrests, murders or any crimes that will be called casual or suicide.

Is it connected with smuggling and drugs transit from Afghanistan?

As to drugs, I can tell that this topic is taboo as you can hardly find high-ranking official having no relation with drugs in Tajikistan. There was joke in Tajikistan 15 years ago. Expensive jeeps appeared in Dushanbe not because they cost certain amount of dollars but owners of jeeps were asked how many kilograms they gave for their cars. It is big problem in Tajikistan. But I would fail to name certain high-ranking officials dealing with drugs as it is used scheme, classified mechanism. But look at villas, expensive cars in Dushanbe and you will realize that everything did not appear because Tajikistan is economically flourishing country. The reason is mad money. This money appears as a result of drugs traffic.     

Russian military men were likely to participate in this process?

Military men themselves did not conceal participation in smuggling and drugs transportation. There were interviews, publications during civil war. Military men spoke about several could penetrate and perhaps penetrate up to now certain territories of Afghanistan, so-called border zone. This situation is likely to be preserved.

There is version concerning several forces concerned with last incidents in Tajikistan striving to compromise Emomali Rakhmonov. What do you think?

There is always intrigue. It is impossible to tell who and how makes it. There was history with murder or murderous assault towards Rakhmonov's close relative, his wife's brother, one of the richest people in Tajikistan. It is difficult to control all these incidents as everything occurs within team, officials. Nobody will know why and how it occurs.    

Author's opinion expressed in this article may be different of that held by Trend

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