Azerbaijan, Baku, Oct. 7. / Trend E.Tariverdiyeva
The disagreement between the Armenian authorities and the world Armenian diasporas in the issue of signing the Armenian-Turkish protocols occurred due to the fact that the issues relating to Turkey are the main factors of the world Armenian diasporas' influence. However, the diasporas unlikely will be able to disrupt the establishment of the Ankara-Yerevan relations, experts believes.
"At present, the lobby intends not only to help Armenia, but harm Turkey" Cornell said. "This agreement will define the specific borders between Turkey and Armenia and the diaspora will not recognize the existing borders," the director of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute at Johns Hopkins University, Svante Cornell, believes.
Earlier Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan told Trend in an exclusive interview that Turkey and Armenia will sign a deal to establish diplomatic ties on Oct. 10.
Opposition parties in Armenia have hinted at the possibility of proposing amendments to the text, including on the proposal to set up a commission to address the genocide issue.
During his recent international visit, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan met with representatives of Armenian diasporas in Europe, Argentina and the U.S, and many of them expressed their opposition to the signing of a Turkish-Armenian agreement.
The Armenian diaspora holds protests worldwide. Sargsyan faced these actions in Paris, New York and Los Angeles. The demonstrators met the Armenian president with slogans such as "Traitor!", "No protocols".
Several opposition parties in Armenia are also against Sargsyan's policy. Such meetings are also held against signing of the protocols.
On Oct.6, rally was held in Yerevan to protest signing of protocols on development of relations with Turkey, Armenia Today said. The event was organized by the movement Miasum "(" Unity "). Protesters marched to the memorial dedicated to victims of so-called "genocide" of Armenians. There they burned copy of protocols in eternal fire, as well as a photo of President Serzh Sargsyan.
According to the experts, the Armenian diasporas are afraid of losing influence after the signing of the Armenian-Turkish protocols.
The world Armenian lobby seriously prevents the normalization of the Turkish-Armenian relations, since the issues relating to Turkey are the main factors of the world Armenian diasporas' influence, Turkish MP Reshad Dogru said.
The world Armenian lobby hampers normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations with all its might, Cornell added.
"There is great difference between Armenia and the world Armenian lobby. What is advantageous to the country is not always advantageous to the Diaspora" Cornell told Trend over phone on Oct.7.
According to Cornell, the diaspora believes that the Armenian government does not speak on behalf of its people. "The Diaspora does its best to influence the president and the Diaspora's actions are headache for the Armenian government," Cornell added.
The Armenian diaspora acts rather bravely for many years because the lobby supports not only financial stability of the country, but also the internal political processes, the expert said.
However, it is too early to predict the results of the disagreement of the Armenian government and the world Armenian lobby, the experts said.
As a whole, it is still too early to speak about duration of impact that Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan and the world Armenian diaspora's confrontation will have, Director of the Armenian Center for National and International Studies (ACNIS), Richard Giragosian, said.
"The real impact will depend on whether the Turkish parliament ratifies the protocols. That is the biggest test and it is still to come," Giragosian wrote to Trend via e-mail.
According to the Turkish MP, the Armenian lobby is unlikely to achieve the breakdown of negotiations.
"I do not believe the Armenian lobby will make breakdown of the Turkish-Armenian relations, because this is a pro-American project, and the U.S. government approves the settlement of relations, which means that the Armenian lobby has failed to play a role," Dogru added.
The issue of the influence of the Diaspora groups in shaping foreign policy of Armenia is ambiguous, European Expert on Caucasus Licinia Simao believes.
"The situation is extremely delicate for the Armenian President and his government, but his decision to consult with the Armenian Diasporas world -wide, in my view, attest to the serious efforts by Armenian leaders to bring this process to a positive conclusion," member of University of Coimbra, Simao wrote to trend News in an e-mail.
According to Simao, despite the radical opposition by some groups, others more moderate exist and have voiced their support to the reconciliation process. This is an important departure from the previous image of the Armenian Diaspora as an homogeneous group.
"Therefore, the balance between being optimistic or pessimistic is hard to achieve. A lot can happen to derail or endlessly postpone the process," Simao said.
However, concerning the important US and EU support to this process which have helped both the Armenian and the Turkish governments withhold criticism at home and abroad, Simao added.
But with the recent "tour" of the Armenian diapsora, President Sargsyan seems much more confident and ambitious in taking on the opponents to normalizing relations with Turkey, Giragosian added.
"In this sense, Sargsyan is confronting the diaspora head-on and, so far, he seems to be succeeding in deflecting the criticism. Interesting, this is also resulting in a broad division between the diaspora and the Armenian government, which only seems to please Turkey," the director added.
R.Hafizoglu contributed in the article.
Do you have any feedback? Contact our journalist at trend@trend.az
