Azerbaijan, Baku, Dec. 16 / Trend E. Tariverdiyeva /
Yerevan's intention to amend legislation and withdraw signatures from international treaties aims to strengthen the power of President Serzh Sargsyan and his domestic support base, experts said.
"Changes to the Armenian Constitution give guarantees to Sargsyan because Armenia ratifying the Armenian-Turkish protocols is a big threat to the government," Turkish Center for International Relations and Strategic Analysis Turksam head Sinan Ogan told Trend over the phone from Moscow.
On behalf of the Armenian president, the amendments will allow the country to withdraw from international treaties, legal expert Hrayr Tovmasyan was quoted as saying by Mediamax.
He said the procedure is practiced in many countries, stressing that this is an aggressive action, rather than a mere refusal to ratify the protocols.
Turkish and Armenian foreign ministers Ahmet Davutoglu and Edward Nalbandian signed the Ankara-Yerevan protocols in Zurich Oct. 10.
Diplomatic relations between Armenia and Turkey were broken in 1993.
Observers said the proposal on amendments are more for the sake of domestic rhetoric and doe not threaten the Armenian-Turkish protocols.
Yerevan's intention to amend its legislation and allow the country to withdraw signatures in international treaties will not change anything, politician Rasim Musabeyov told Trend .
"It is a primitive blackmail," Musabeyov said.
The politician said the document signed in Zurich will be a starting point for Armenia and Turkey to begin the negotiation process.
Sargsyan recently issued a strong statement warning Turkey that any unreasonable delay in the Turkish parliament's consideration of the two diplomatic protocols on Armenian-Turkish relations would be considered unacceptable, Armenian Center for National and International Studies Director Richard Giragosian said.
"The president's warning is justified and is actually a necessary reminder to Turkey that the time for 'testing' Armenia's resolve is over," Giragosian told Trend via e-mail.
It is also a timely warning and most likely reflects the same message that U.S. President Barack Obama delivered to the Turkish delegation during their recent visit to the U.S.
He added that the international community expects Ankara to ratify the protocols "within a reasonable time frame" and "without any preconditions."
This is probably the same message that U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told Sargsyan in her recent telephone conversation. This also reflects the fact that Armenia, along with the U.S., the EU, and even Russia, are all in agreement that Turkey must ratify the protocols quickly and without demanding any preconditions.
The Europeans and the U.S. very much want to see a Turkish-Armenian rapprochement, Katz said.
"They would also like to see an Azeri-Armenian rapprochement, but do not want the inability to achieve this to block a Turkish-Armenian one," Politics Professor at the Public and International Affairs Department at George Mason University Mark Katz told Trend via e-mail.
Ogan said the adoption of the bill to amend the Constitution is directly related to the Armenian-Turkish protocols on the normalization of bilateral relations signed in Zurich Dec. 10.
He added that making constitutional amendments gives Armenia the chance to maneuver.
"As opposed to Turkey, Armenia is likely to ratify the protocols first, and then will put pressure on Turkey to ratify the document," Ogan said.
He stressed that Yerevan can threaten Ankara to raise the issue of recognizing the "Armenian genocide" in Congress if the country refuses to ratify the protocols.
However, according to observers, the amendments can negatively affect Armenia's political image.
Ogan said the amendments are a violation of the international law according to which the signing of international protocols cannot be annulled.
"It will be a great loss to Armenia's international prestige, which is not high," Ogan said.
The amendments will allow Sargsyan to refuse the protocols with Turkey at anytime, as the majority of the Armenian population opposes normalizing relations with Ankara. The ratification of the protocols is seen as possibly jeopardizing the incumbent president's government, he said.
Ogan added that such an action by Yerevan would cause great doubts in Turkey about Armenia's seriousness to implement the agreements.
Azerbaijani politician Zardusht Alizade thinks that Armenia is acting as if the country is living in complete well-being with high living standards and territorial security. However, the population has fallen from 3.2 to 1.8 million.
"Let them continue their policy until their final victory, until the last Armenian," Alizade said.
But at the same time, the strong Armenian stance does not mean the country wants to challenge the protocols or its diplomacy with Turkey, Giragosian said.
"This is more about the "diplomatic test of wills" between Armenia and Turkey, and this also of course involves Azerbaijan. But the real test will be how Turkey will respond and react, as Ankara clearly holds the initiative, and both Armenia and Azerbaijan are equally waiting for the Turkish response," he said.
R. Hafizoglu, M. Aliyev contributed to this article.
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