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How future wars are likely to be fought

Other News Materials 15 November 2015 17:06 (UTC +04:00)
It is quite understandable that the French are angry and upset by the horrific attacks that took place in Paris last Friday.
How future wars are likely to be fought

By Claude Salhani

It is quite understandable that the French are angry and upset by the horrific attacks that took place in Paris last Friday. There will no doubt be a very strong urge to seek revenge. The strong desire for retaliation is also understandable. As French President Francois Hollande said shortly after the attacks, "it is a declaration of war on France."

That it is. By the same token it is also a declaration of war on all of humanity, as US President Barak Obama declared later in the day.

That the French are upset is understandable, someone has hit their way of life in attacking cafes and restaurants and other places of social gatherings. The targets were carefully chosen, not for their military or strategic value, of which they have none, but rather for the psychological impact they carry. This tells us a lot about the enemy's state of mind.

But waging war requires careful planning, as does the "after-war, to which much thought must be given. The reason yesteryears' enemies -- Japan and Germany -- are allied to their former enemies is because much effort was placed in ensuring they prospered in peace, once the war was over. The Marshall Plan was conceived and implemented. The former foes were offered an enticing alternative.

The same principles should apply in this war too. All the more so that this war is very different from previous ones where the enemy was known. This war will not be a conventional war. In this new type of war, the enemy operates in the shadows. And for the moment, we don't even know who that enemy is. So we should also plan for a different kind of peace.

As former Israeli foreign minister Shimon Peres declared at the time of the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States, "Completely new armies are needed. This is a war in which the enemies sail over borders, have no uniforms, no identity cards, no warnings, and there is a need for a completely different strategic and tactical deployment to suit the new situation."

Despite the urge to strike sooner rather than later, a lot of patience will have to be exercised before any retaliation can occur. There is a tremendous amount of intelligence work that needs to be conducted before the military war machine is unleashed. And when the reply does come, it should be carefully planned and carried out, and it will have to be complete. There can be no halfway marks in this conflict. There can be no stopping short of the final objective. And this means planning for the "after-war" with a concerned effort to address the problems that brought us to war in the first place.

While perhaps no longer the main driver of Arab and Muslim hatred of the West, but an issue that has helped fuel the Middle East violence is the continued plight of the Palestinians and their legitimate demand for a settlement in the Middle East dispute.

In the after-war, the United States should become an honest broker in mediating settlements for the Palestinians and Syrians where those countries can prosper in dignity in a democratic world. That in itself will greatly defuse the negative energy directed against the United States and Western Europe.

Retaliation will come in due course. Preparations are very likely already under way and no doubt the French president has been conferring with other world leaders, seeking support for an eventual response to what he called "an act of war."

Most of the world is united against terrorism, but at the same time, the world should be ready to offer an alternative -- a New Marshall Plan to settle the Middle East, Palestinian territories, Iraq and Syria. Otherwise, the risk of continued conflict and terrorism will remain and this war would have been about simple revenge.

Claude Salhani is a senior editor with Trend Agency. You can follow Claude on Twitter @Claudesalhani.

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