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Armenia: 2009 was bad, 2015 will be worse

Türkiye Materials 26 June 2015 15:16 (UTC +04:00)
Since Armenia is on the brink of an economic crisis, the year 2015 will be very difficult for that country’s people, even much more difficult than the crisis year of 2009.
Armenia: 2009 was bad, 2015 will be worse

Baku, Azerbaijan, June 26

By Rufiz Hafizoglu - Trend

Since Armenia is on the brink of an economic crisis, the year 2015 will be very difficult for that country's people, even much more difficult than the crisis year of 2009, Deniz Ulke Aribogan, the professor of the political science department at the Istanbul University, told Trend.

She said despite that Armenia is located in the Black Sea region, which is a very important region from a geopolitical point of view, the country can't take the advantage of it as it has problems with the neighboring countries.

Aribogan said that Armenia's problems with Azerbaijan and Turkey are contributing to its isolation and hindering the economic development.

"Aside from that, Armenia is not capable of finding a common ground with the emerging economies of the Caspian and Black Sea regions," she noted.

"That country is staying "afloat" with help of the political support of the Armenian lobby and the loans from international organizations. If we consider the economic situation in Armenia, we can see that this year, the industrial production in that country has declined by over six percent," said Aribogan.

She added that Armenia's exports fell by over 20 percent.

"The former head of the Central Bank of Armenia said that unlike the previous years, in 2015, the level of poverty will increase in the country," said Aribogan.

The scholar said Armenia is a country that is on the verge of poverty and has buried all the hopes for the future, giving the exceptional importance to the 1915 events, hoping for help from abroad.

"All this will lead to the Armenians' seeking work in neighboring countries," said Aribogan.

She said that currently 100,000 Armenians are illegally working in Turkey, and each of them earns an average of $500-$1,000 a month.

Given that Armenian migrant workers earn much more in Turkey than in Armenia itself, it is not ruled out that the number of Armenian illegal migrants will grow in this country, she said.

"Turkish government doesn't prevent illegal Armenian migrants from working in Turkey," Aribogan said, adding that it is the part of the public diplomacy policy, as well as the opportunity to break Armenians' stereotypes about Turks.

The surveys show that the majority of Armenians, who have returned from Turkey to Armenia, do not attach importance to the 1915 events, but think about the future of their country's economy, she added.

Aribogan didn't rule out that in the future, these Armenians will put a social and political pressure on Armenian government to make it think about the possibility of withdrawing from Azerbaijan's occupied lands.

"Backing down from the policy of occupation of Azerbaijani lands can be a good factor for Armenia's development," she added.

Armenians have been under the tutelage of the West for over 100 years already, according to Aribogan.

"The fact that Armenians are the "victims" of the 1915 events makes them "special" in the eyes of the West. No matter how we try to counter this, West's position towards Armenia is obvious," she said.

Furthermore, Aribogan said that Azerbaijan and Turkey are developing dynamically and turning into the global players.

"We shouldn't be concerned about West's position towards Armenia. Instead, we should develop our own strategy under these conditions," she said.

"As distinct from the previous years, we can develop a good strategy that will become a very important factor," Aribogan added.

Edited by SI

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Follow the author on Twitter: @rhafizoglu

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