Baku, Azerbaijan Oct. 8
By Rufiz Hafizoglu - Trend:
Against the backdrop of Russian air forces' operations in Syria, the aggravation of relations between Ankara and Moscow remains one of the most relevant topics worldwide today.
There is no doubt that economic relations will suffer first from the growing crisis between Russia and Turkey.
Amid Russian air forces' operations in Syria, which so much dissatisfies Turkey, Moscow has said that Ankara can get a discount for Russian gas along with the implementation of the Turkish Stream, if the Turkish side wants to get such a discount.
At first glance it may seem that Russia's operations in Syria and the discounts for Russian gas are two different issues that have nothing to do with each other. But the recent statement made by Turkey's Energy and Natural Resources Minister Ali Riza Alaboyun gives reason to say that these two issues are interrelated.
"I don't think Russia will limit the supply of natural gas during winter months," said Alaboyun.
Aside from that, earlier, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said his country, if necessary, can purchase gas not only from Russia.
It is worth noting that in the past there were incidents and misunderstandings between Ankara and Moscow on a number of political issues, but despite all of that, Turkey has never made such a statement.
Ankara has apparently got a signal that amid the growing crisis, Russia may cut gas supplies to Turkey, at least temporarily.
Last year, 26.7 billion cubic meters of Russian gas was delivered to Turkey, while it is planned to increase the supplies in 2015 to 30 billion cubic meters.
Moreover, Turkey's Akfel, Bosphorusgaz and Kibar Enerji companies have received a license for importing Russian gas into Turkey for 30 years. The fourth company Bati Hatti has received a license for 23 years. They will annually import six billion cubic meters of Russian gas into Turkey.
In accordance with the agreement, Akfel company will import 2.25 billion cubic meters of Russian gas per year, Bosphorus - 1.75 billion cubic meters, Bati Hatti and Kibar Enerji - one billion cubic meters each.
Thus, 22 percent of the Russian gas imported to Turkey will be purchased by the country's private sector. Nevertheless, despite the efforts of the Turkish side to get a discount for Russian gas, Gazprom doesn't give it to the state-owned BOTAS Petroleum Pipeline Corporation.
No matter how Turkey tries, today, it can't get rid of the energy dependence. The country's problem is that it imports around 90 percent of the consumed hard coal, 93 percent of oil and almost 97 percent of natural gas. All this makes Turkey vulnerable.
Naturally, Russia is well aware of Turkey's weaknesses and a harsh winter is ahead.
For the present, it is too early to state that in order to put political pressure on Turkey, Russia will completely suspend the gas supply this winter. Such a step is not in Russia's interest, since Turkey is the second significant purchaser of Russian gas after Germany.
It is not ruled out that as a warning, Russia can reduce the volume of gas or temporarily suspend its supply to Turkey.
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Rufiz Hafizoglu is the head of Trend Agency's Arabic news service, follow him on Twitter: @rhafizoglu
