Azerbaijan, Baku, Oct. 13 / Trend E. Tariverdiyeva /
It does not worth to expect from the Astana summit in December certain decisions, that will change the situation around Nagorno-Karabakh, Alexei Vlasov, deputy dean of the Faculty of History at the Moscow State University, a member of Trend Expert Council, said.
"Kanat Saudabayev, the OSCE chairman in-office, has repeatedly attempted to advance the idea of a road map of conflict settlement on the Caucasus. However, Kazakhstan's initiative does not have real outcomes," Vlasov, editor-in-chief of analytical information portal Vestnik Kavkaza (Bulletin of the Caucasus), told Trend journalists at a meeting today.
He said the OSCE summit in Astana will focus on economic security, national minorities and the OSCE reform, aimed at a more dynamic and effective response of the organization to new risks and challenges.
"It would be a great optimism to expect new breakthrough solutions to Nagorno-Karabakh to be prepared for the summit," Vlasov said.
Vlasov said one can expect the situation to change in 2011 under certain circumstances.
Vlasov said the mediators of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement understand that public discontent is growing in Azerbaijan. The talks to return back territories adjoining Nagorno-Karabakh will be resumed in 2011.
"Time will tell whether the rumors will be justified and whether the mediators will convince Yerevan that such steps are necessary," Vlasov said.
He said that the mediators, in particular Russia, and foreign players such as Turkey, are solving the dilemma whether to move from stalemate in the Nagorno-Karabakh or to leave everything at the level of virtual challenge. Much depends on how the situation will evolve over Iran, political analyst said.
"If the U.S. decides to solve Iran's problem in 2011, the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh will remain in the virtual space. If everything is limited by diplomatic and economic pressure on Iran and world powers wish to demonstrate that they are able to achieve settlement of the problems through the talks, then, perhaps, we will see concessions from Yerevan by late 2011, " Vlasov said.
He said that it does not worth exaggerating the influence of Turkey on the conflict, given the internal divisions in the country.
"Turkish authorities have not determined their foreign policy yet, therefore, the Armenian issue was inscribed for Ankara in a more general context of Turkey's role in Central Asia, the Caucasus and the Caspian Sea in the nearest future. Turkey still prefers to use tactical decisions without declaring its strategy. Therefore, the possibilities to put pressure on Armenia are limited," he said.
Vlasov said that it is necessary to understand that it does not worth to expect changes in the structure and format of Nagorno-Karabakh talks in the nearest future because it will take much time and it will turn out that specific decisions are postponed for an indefinite period.
A conflict between the two South Caucasus countries began in 1988 when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Armenian armed forces have occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijan since 1992, including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and seven surrounding districts. Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a ceasefire agreement in 1994.
The co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group - Russia, France, and the U.S. - are currently holding negotiations to resolve the dispute.
Armenia has failed to implement UN Security Council resolutions stipulating the liberation of Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding regions.