BAKU, Azerbaijan, Oct. 8
By Nargiz Sadikhova - Trend:
The only logical solution to Nagorno Karabakh conflict is for Armenia to cede the territory back to Azerbaijan, Enders Wimbush, Former director of Radio Liberty and former Vice President of Hudson Institute in US, told Trend.
Wimbush said that the conflict has never been resolved, so the risk of escalation has always lain just beneath the surface.
“Unresolved conflicts always escalate, eventually, until some permanent resolution is found. Cause and effect seem closely tied, in this case. Armenia seized the territory in the early 1990s while Azerbaijan lacked the capabilities to defend it successfully. Today Azerbaijan has the capabilities, the motive, the energy, and the opportunity because Armenia is confused geopolitically, having compromised its tether to Russia, while resisting openings to Turkey, which has in any case championed the Azerbaijan side,” he explained.
In short, he said, the conflict escalated because one side saw the opportunity to solve the problem as it understood it, while the other side has lost support for its immunity to having its definition of the conflict challenged.
He also noted that there is no solution to the conflict that will fit all sides as “all sides” seek different outcomes.
“The only logical solution is for Armenia to cede the territory back to Azerbaijan and attempt to manage the backlash from its own population that will certainly occur. In short, geography makes all imaginable peaceful solution,” he said.
Armenian Armed Forces launched a large-scale military attack on positions of Azerbaijani army on the front line, using large-caliber weapons, mortars and artillery on Sept. 27.
Azerbaijan responded with a counter-offensive along the entire front. As a result of retaliation, Azerbaijani troops liberated a number of territories previously occupied by Armenia, as well as take important, strategic heights under control.
The fighting continued into October 2020, in the early days of which Armenia launched missile attacks on Azerbaijani cities of Ganja, Mingachevir, Khizi as well as Absheron district.
On October 6th, at about 9 pm (GMT+4), Armenian Armed Forces launched missiles at Azerbaijani Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, the largest strategic project in the region, which plays an important role in Europe's energy security. Azerbaijani army was able to disable the missiles in the air, so no damage was done to the pipeline.
The conflict between the two South Caucasus countries began in 1988 when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan. As a result of the ensuing war, Armenian armed forces occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijan, including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and seven surrounding districts.
The 1994 ceasefire agreement was followed by peace negotiations. Armenia has not yet implemented four UN Security Council resolutions on the withdrawal of its armed forces from Nagorno Karabakh and the surrounding districts.
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