Color of Obama’s Skin May be in Favor of Him
Azerbaijan, Baku, 28 October /corr. Trend V.Zhavoronkova / The color of the skin of Presidential candidate from the Democratic Party, Barack Obama, not only will not affect the results of presidential elections in the USA, but also even it can draw voters to his side, experts said.
"There are, however, many people for whom his race is an asset, given that his election could go a long way to heal the racial scars of America's history," Jack Glaser, American politician told Trend via e-mail.
According to the last surveys, Presidential candidate of the USA from the Democratic Party, Barack Obama, continues to lead due to the drop in the rating of his rival, Republican John McCain. For example, according to the survey by CBS News together with New York Times, Obama has the superiority of 13%.
At the meeting, which took place in the end
of the last week in Denver, the State of Colorado, Obama brought together large
number of his supporters during entire history of the pre-election campaign, Vesti
reported. According to the different estimations, the meeting was attended by
nearly 45-50,000 people.
With regards to the rival of Democrat, Republican John McCain, the meeting in his support took place with the substantially smaller participation of public. Only 2,000 people came to listen to McCain in Ayov, and in Ohio - no more than 5,000.
American experts concur in the opinion that the number of voters, who will not vote for Obama due to the color of his skin, will be less than the number of those, who will give preference to him.
The factor, which can prevent Obama, can become Bradley's effect, which manifests with the rivalry of the two candidates, one of whom is dark-skinned. Significant part of voters hides their position, giving their voice to the dark-skinned candidate during surveys, but fearing the direct accusations of racism, in the polling booth, the white voters will vote for the white candidate. In the history of the USA there were two cases, when with the serious leading according to the data of survey, the black candidates lost during the voting.
In 1982 African American Tom Bradley lost the elections to the governor of California, white rival, despite the fact that he led with the superiority of 7%. And in 1989 elections, the governor of Virginia, black candidate Douglas Vilder won the post with the superiority in of half a percent, although he led in the survey with the superiority of 9%.
A number of polls show up to 6 points disadvantage due to Obama's race, Charles Henry, American expert on the African-American searches at California University, said.
Many Americans are probably supporting Senator Obama in part because it will be transformative to have a President who is African-American, and people want to be a part of history, Peter Shane, American expert on elections, said.
"That historic signal of change that is probably helping to turn out unprecedented number of young and minority voters, which will surely be a big part of the story if Senator Obama wins," Shane, search fellow of University of Ohio State, told Trend via e-mail.
There will be some voters who choose McCain, in part, because they could not support a black President, Shane said.
"Given the political landscape in America -- with the unpopular war, the unpopular Republican president, the economic crisis that Republican philosophies are seen as ill-equipped to fix, if not the actual cause, and Obama's eloquence and political giftedness -- if he does lose, one would have to consider that race played a role," Glaser said.
Many experts consider that the color of the skin here generally is not reason, and for the candidate from the Republicans already practically it is not possible to outdistance rival in the pre-election race.
"I don't think anything can prevent Obama from winning. There is simply no scenario I see that stops him. And no, his race does not hurt him. In fact, I expect a large turnout of black voters who will go overwhelmingly for Obama," American expert on elections, John McAdams, told Trend via e-mail.
Any last-minute "stunt" by the McCain campaign will now be perceived as an act of desperation, not of strength, Shane said. Only an event such as a terrorist attack could swing the public in McCain's direction, Henry said.
The majority of the public sides with Obama on most of the major issues, Glaser said.
So McCain's campaign has to try other angles, but they undermined one of their strongest arguments (that Obama doesn't have enough experience) by selecting Sarah Palin (who has even less, and seems to have learned much less from those limited experiences) as the vice presidential nominee, Glaser said.
So they are stuck trying to make a lot out of small things, he added.
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