McCain Unlikely Can Change Pre-election Dynamic in Favor of Himself
Azerbaijan, Baku, 1 November /corr. Trend V.Zhavoronkova / Something
unexpected, which is highly improbable, must occur for victory of the presidential
candidate from the Republicans John McCain in the election in the USA, experts consider.
Three days have left to the presidential elections in the USA. The presidential candidate from the Republicans John McCain lags behind his rival, Democrat Barack Obama, averagely by 3-11 percent. The question is of interest for the world community whether young, African American, inexperienced candidate from the Democratic Party will be able to win the elections or nevertheless the traditions and experience will take precedence.
The experts concur in the opinion that McCain will unlikely change the situation in favor of himself, while the pre-election campaign almost has completed, and a few days have left to the elections.
"Only an extraordinary event could change the situation at this point," Charles Henry, Professor at University of Berkley (USA), told Trend via e-mail.
This can be either happy chance for McCain or the error of his rival, experts said.
McCain must hope that the voters who are expected to support Obama either do not vote (for example, young people), or decide they cannot support an African-American candidate for the presidency, Cary Covington, American expert on elections, said.
Other American expert Jack Glaser said that only a catastrophic gaffe by Obama could change the result now.
McCain's best chance now is to mobilize his own support to maximize the number of voters who turn out and vote for him, Covington said. "His last hope is that some external event change the dynamics (a terrorist attack or threat) that would make people decide that McCain was the better candidate to deal with national security issues," Covington, Associate Professor of University of Iowa, said.
American political scientist John Pitney thinks that McCain's one more chance is to reinforce doubts about Obama's readiness. "Obama would be the first US president since Warren Harding with neither military nor executive experience. Since the United States is fighting two wars, that inexperience may concern a number of voters," John J. Pitney, Jr. Roy P. Crocker Professor of American Politics at Claremont McKenna College, said.
The experts consider that all the above-mentioned will unlikely take place and it means that there are no hopes for McCain's victory.
McCain can not change the process of events, Glaser, told Trend via e-mail.
"His campaign has tried every possible negative attack they can think of, and because they tend to be largely distortions and "guilt by association," people are not going for them," Glaser said.
Glaser added that also, the bigger issues -- the economy, the war, healthcare -- are swamping any effects of petty attacks.
No candidate has come back from such a gap in the polls this late in the election, Henry said.
Covington thinks that changing the pre-election dynamic seems very unlikely so close to the election, and about 1/3 of the voters have already voted.
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