Azerbaijan, Baku, Feb. 20 / Trend , E.Tariverdiyeva / If the government of Armenia allows the conflict to break out in the Georgian region of Samtskhe-Javaheti, populated by Armenians, and Karabakh scenario to be repeated, this will become political and economic suicide for Yerevan.
"Any military or political activity of Armenia in the Armenian-populated Georgian region of Samtskhe-Javaheti will be equivalent to economic death of Yerevan," Georgian political scientist on the problems of Caucasus, Mamuka Areshidze, told Trend .
Armenian organization Javakhk, analytical center Mitk and the union of public organizations for repatriation Erkir made a joint statement, in which they accused the government of Georgia of the policy of "demographic terror" with regards to the Armenians of Javaheti, News Armenia agency reported.
In connection with the official visit of Georgian Foreign Minister Grigol Vashadze to Armenia on Feb.20-21, public organizations called Armenian authorities to put basic problems of Armenians of region Samtskhe- Javahk-Tsalka on the agenda of Armenian-Georgian intergovernmental relations and show consistency in settling these issues.
About 90,000 of Meskheti Turks lived in Georgian region Samtskhe- Javahk-Tsalka till 1944 and were evicted during Stalin repression in the same year. Becoming a member of the Council of Europe in 1999, Georgia took the responsibility to organize their return to former settlements. Upon the decision made at the parliamentary level, appeals of those willing to return to the motherland will be considered by a special commission.
The commission has received up to 700 appeals. Therefore, the application term was extended. Currently, 70 percent of Samtskhe- Javahk-Tsalka region is populated by Armenians.
According to experts, Armenian government understands that it's dangerous to toughen relations with the only partner in Caucasus region. Therefore, it will not allow the situation in Samtskhe- Javahk to become complicated.
European expert on the South Caucasus at the European Center for Policy, Amanda Akcakoca, doubts very much it would end up like this because probably Yerevan should have the common sense, after Karabakh, not to support another such breakaway statelet, with a view to Armenia's international credibility.
The former Soviet republics of Armenia and Azerbaijan are officially in the situation of war because of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, populated by Armenians. Self-proclaimed republic is considered by the world community as part of Azerbaijan. Since the beginning of the Armenian- Azerbaijani conflict in 1988, nearly 35,000 people have been killed, 20 percent of the territory of Azerbaijan, in particular Nagorno-Karabakh and seven surrounding regions, are still under the occupation of the armed forces of Armenia.
A ceasefire agreement was reached in 1994. Still Baku and Yerevan hold unsuccessful negotiations through international mediators. The ceasefire agreement is periodically broke on the line of contact of the armed forces of sides.
Russian expert Gregory Trofimchuk also believes that the movement of the Armenians in Georgia will net repeat the scenario of Nagorno-Karabakh, because such a scenario could cause by the support of the West. "In this case, no similar support has seen one can not anticipate any major strategic development of the situation," Strategic Development Center president Trofimchuk said to Trend .
Georgian independent political scientist Joseph Tsintsadze advises to share what nationalist Armenian journalists write and what pragmatic leaders of Armenia are taking. Now Georgia is the only partner of Armenia in the Caucasus, as oxygen to Armenia, and a new conflict could be a lot of trouble.
"I think that Armenia will not bring the case to the conflict," Tsintsadze said to Trend over phone from Tbilisi.
According to experts, Armenian journalists aggravate the situation in Samtsakh-Javakhetia.
Armenian newspapers release slanderous articles related Georgia daily, Tsintsadze added.
"Despite the existing vague tension in Samtsakh-Javakhetia region, the situation is being represented worse," Georgian expert Areshidze said.
The statements of Armenian activists on demographic terrorism are too exaggerated, although the policy towards the region and the Armenians living there has deteriorated with coming Saakashvili to power in Georgia.
However, Russian expert predicts separation of Samtskhe-Javakheti in the future and believes that this will depend on the influence of third force.
Political scientist Mikhail Alexandrov believes that the Armenians have not yet been put forward demands to secede, but if the authorities of Georgia will not try to find a compromise with the Armenians of Javakheti there is a requirement of office.
Russia may support the Armenians in Samtsakh-Javakhetia region. But this support will be aimed to destabilize the situation in Caucasus. "Russia still has no strategy on what is benefit for Russia. To raise or maintain such steps through third hands is deadly dangerous," Alexandrov said to Trend .
R.Agayev (Moscow), D.Ibrahimova (Baku), V.Zhavoronkovo (Baku), E.Rustamov (Baku), N.Kirtskhalia contributed to the material.
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