Alternative for U.S. MDS in Czech Republic and Poland can be Israel & Turkey: experts
Azerbaijan, Baku, Sept. 18 / Trend , E.Tariverdiyeva/
An alternative to the U.S. missile defense system (MDS) in the Czech Republic and Poland, whose deployment was cancelled, can be Israel and Turkey, experts believe.
"At present, the emphasis appears to be on the Balkans, Turkey and Israel," President of Center for European Policy Analysis in Washington, Wess Mitchell, told Trend .
President Barack Obama has announced a radical revision of the missile defense plans and the cancellation of deploying missile defenses in Eastern Europe, which irritated Russia.
Washington claimed that the deployment of a radar station in the Czech Republic and interceptor missiles in Poland is necessary to protect against unpredictable countries, primarily Iran. But on Sept. 17, Obama said that the U.S. intelligence had changed its assessment of the capabilities of the Iranian nuclear program.
Experts believe the U.S. can soon deploy the alternative MDS in the territories of its allies: Turkey and Israel.
The US administration might strengthen its existing co-operation with the Israel, believes Beata Kviatek-Simanska, the European Expert on security.
The results of an investigation accomplishes by US intelligence experts this month has shown that Iran is concentrating less on long-range ballistic missiles, but rapidly develops the short- and medium-range missiles that could reach parts of Europe, she said.
"Thus, the establishment of Arrow 3, a mid range anti-missile defense system, and David's Sling, an interceptor for a shorter-range missiles, which are both developed in cooperation with the US, might be accomplished sooner," Professor International Relations at Netherlands-based University of Groningen, Kviatek-Simanska, wrote to Trend in an email.
Turkey being a close ally in NATO could be an alternative, believes Arnold Kammel, the European Expert on Security.
An alternative MDS in Czech Republic and Poland, he said, can also be the Balkans.
"Concerning Israel, the USA have already installed a powerful missile defense radar in the Negev desert, so it might be considered a possibility to transfer the defense shield to Israel," Professor at the Institute for the European Security Policy, Kammel wrote to Trend in an email.
The U.S. can deploy the MDS in Israel, but it is a possibility but not linked necessarily to the abandoning of its missile system deploying in the Eastern Europe or central Europe, believes Ephraim Kam, Deputy Head of the Institute for National Security Studies of Israel.
"It is an issue of itself because if eventually the USA and Israel sometimes in the future will come to the conclusion that they can not stop Iran from equaling the nuclear weapons, in this case the USA will have to strengthen the security of Israel and one of the options might be to deploy antimissile system," Kam told Trend in a telephone conversation from Israel.
However, American Expert, Yannis Stivachtis, does not see the Obama Administration deploying a missile-defense system anywhere; unless the American Administration decides to disregard the importance of collaboration with the Russians or that the latter do not really care about the installation of that system in Israel..
"The Russians have stated clearly that they are, in principle, against missile-defense systems because they undermine the principles of the strategy of deterrence, Director on International Relations at University of Virginia, Stivachtis wrote to Trend in an email.
Turkish Political Analyst, Mustafa Ozcan also believes that the deployment of U.S. missiles in Turkey, while the ruling party is in power, is impossible, because this government pursues a balanced policy towards Russia and Iran.
"Russia has supported the peace initiative proposed by Turkey in the Caucasus, and Turkey will support the deployment of the U.S. missile defense on its territory to the detriment of Russia," leading Turkish Political Scientist, Mustafa Ozcan said to Trend over telephone from Ankara.
Earlier, he said, there were disagreements between the Turkish government and army over policies towards Iran and Russia, but now they have reached an agreement.
"In addition, the missile defense deployment in Turkey could destroy the pro-Caucasus policy of Ankara," he said.
According Kviatek - Simanska, the American system of warning and prevention of attacks can in the future change not so much the location as a technical view.
The possibilities for an alternative solution of the European MDS, which would be more cost effective and proven, were considered already for a few years, she said.
One of such alternatives is a sea-based radar, especially, because this system is already proven - one large MDS radar is already deployed on a modified floating oil platform, the expert said.
"The other is a further development of the existing Aegis BMD, which is a very efficient and highly mobile sea-based defense against short- and medium-range ballistic missiles," Kviatek - Simanska said.
R.Hafizoglu and U.Sadikhova contributed to this article.