Iran to take steps in response to sanctions: experts

Iran to take steps in response to sanctions: experts

Azerbaijan, Baku, October 6 / Trend , E.Ostapenko /

If still necessary to impose further sanctions against Iran, they should be introduced after the suspension of the negotiation process. However, West itself can also suffer from these sanctions, experts say.  

"Now it is unfavorable time for sanctions, since the negotiations with Iran are already held in a septilateral format. It is desirable to adopt new sanctions after the talks end, otherwise the sanctions will immediately stop them," Russian leading analyst on the Iranian nuclear program, Vladimir Yevseyev, told Trend by telephone from Moscow.

Western officials have repeatedly warned that if an agreement is not reached to freeze Iran's uranium enrichment program by the end of the year, the country may face new sanctions.

Iran insists that its nuclear program is developed exclusively for peaceful purposes and aimed at ensuring country's electricity demand. Tehran has ignored the five UN Security Council resolutions, demanding an end to all nuclear development.

Yevseyev believes that the optimal action with regards to Iran is a policy of waiting. Now Iran went to meet the international community, fearing that it may sustain strong pressure.

"So, now it needs to stand for the negotiations to get maximum concessions from Iran, after which the negotiation process is likely to once again get into a deadlock because Iran will not go to any major concessions," said Yevseyev, senior fellow at the Center for International Security at the Institute for World Economy and International Relations of Russian Academy of Sciences.

On Oct. 1, Geneva hosted a new round of talks between the delegations of Iran and the Six countries (five permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany). The talks resulted in agreement that Iran in the next two weeks will allow inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency to inspect a new uranium enrichment plant in Qom, and IAEA Secretary General Mohamed ElBaradei to visit Tehran.

An agreement was also reached that Tehran can enrich uranium abroad (which Russia can do) and that a new round of negotiations on Iran's nuclear program will be held by the end of this month.

Russia and China, two permanent members of UN Security Council, do not agree to introduce new restrictive measures against Iran. Moreover, it was reported that since September, Chinese companies are actively exporting gasoline to Iran, supplies of which the United States and its allies are going to limit.

Current sanctions would be sufficient if they enforced strictly by all major players, Anthony Seaboyer, European analyst dealing with Iranian topics, said.

Russia and China are crucial in this regard, the expert said.

"Action without Russia and China in form of sanctions is not very promising. If other countries simply step in by delivering products that fall under the sanctions, these remain without significant effect," Seaboyer, analyst at German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) told Trend via email. 

Up to the incipient optimism in the negotiation process, Western countries had planned to impose additional sanctions on imports of gasoline to Iran, as well as sanctions on the banking sector in the country.

Irrespective of whether to apply sanctions against Iran, with the consent of Russia and China or without their consent, Iran can easily get out of this situation, said an Iranian nuclear expert Said Yari. According to him, it is possible in two ways.

Firstly, Iran has the potential to increase production and for economic growth, and currently is working to increase this capacity. Within maximum six months, Iran can, with its potential, eliminate most of its gaps, said Yari.

Secondly, Yari said that Iran controls large part of the Strait of Hormuz located in the Persian Gulf, through which one of the major oil routes runs. To ensure security in the region, Iran can begin to control the passage of oil ships through the Strait. Thus, according to Jari, Iran can create problems for the international community.

"Theoretically, Iran has informed the international community of this possibility. If necessary, Iran can carry out its intentions into practice and do so," Yari, Secretary General of the Organization for the Protection of National Interests of Iran, told Trend by telephone from Tehran.

T.Jafarov contributed to article

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