Trend Azerbaijani Desk Deputy Director of Foreign Issues Seba Agayeva
In 2009, Azerbaijan's foreign policy became more confident and even aggressive in a positive sense of the word. Last year, the voice of Azerbaijan in the international arena became stronger. It sounded stronger and more confident. Official Baku has demonstrated everybody that it is able not only to hold a blow, but also respond adequately to any political force.
Last year, regional and global political processes, actions taken towards solving some longstanding problems, have created an opportunity, moreover, a need to demonstrate strength for Azerbaijan. In this publication we will review the main tendencies in foreign policy of 2009 through the prism of a priority problem for Azerbaijan - the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
The negotiations for a peaceful settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem demonstrated high dynamics last year. Nagorno-Karabakh became a part of a big game, which involves the major political players in the world.
After Barack Obama took office, the United States changed tactics of foreign policy. The new president proclaimed a policy of reboot of relations with Russia, by taking a course at Moscow's involvement in the anti-Iranian axis. At the same time, Obama decided to improve relations with Muslim countries, primarily with Turkey. Instead, the new administration of the White House expects to get a strong ally in the strategic region and enlist the support of Ankara in such problematic issues such as Afghanistan, Iran and Iraq.
Obama arrived in Turkey to establish contacts. He stated that the United States will do everything possible for Turkey to be a strong country. After that, Erdogan's government has launched serious reforms in several areas. A process of "democratic solution", envisaging settlement of the Kurdish problem, the rapprochement with Armenia, stipulating elimination the problem of so-called genocide, began. Moreover, Turkey has taken actions to turn the country into a regional transit hub for transportation of hydrocarbons.
But Ankara did not become a free supplement of the United States in the region. Turkey began active negotiations with Iran and Syria. Erdogan acted as a mediator to solve the Middle East conflict. But Israeli military operation "Cast lead" in the Gaza Strip has led to serious contradictions between Turkey and Israel.
In short, Turkey began to play a role of a major regional player. But one of the main obstacles was the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The OSCE Minsk Group's Co-Chair countries intensified their efforts to solve the conflict. For the first time in a long history of the mediation mission's activity, the presidents of the United States, France and Russia within the G8 meeting adopted a statement on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in Italian Akvila in July. The presidents called on Armenia and Azerbaijan to coordinate basic principles for solving the conflict, which will be the framework for a comprehensive solution of the conflict. The basic principles were also promulgated. They meant liberation of the occupied territories around Nagorno-Karabakh, the return of refugees, joint use of transport corridors, etc.
The statement made by the presidents of the United States, France and Russia gave additional dynamism to solve the Karabakh conflict. The number of contacts between representatives of Armenia and Azerbaijan has increased. But a tactical game around Turkey was launched. Armenia realized that there is a prospect of opening the Armenian-Turkish border. As a result, the deplorable economic situation of the country can improve. Therefore, Armenia began to delay the settlement process. But Azerbaijan called on Turkey to guarantee that the Armenian-Turkish border will not be opened until the conflict is solved.
In fact, during a year, relations between Azerbaijan and Turkey suffered two crises. The first one occurred in April-May. Then the Azerbaijani media outlets have repeatedly asked the Turkish side to answer the following question whether Turkey will open the border with Armenia without settlement of the Karabakh conflict. Turkish officials shied away from a concrete answer, saying that Ankara will never take actions contrary to the interests of Azerbaijan. Then official circles in Azerbaijan asked to give a simple answer to a simple question. It was also mentioned that for a long time Azerbaijan has been selling gas to Turkey at a very low price.
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip arrived in Baku to answer all the questions. In Baku, he made it clear that the border with Armenia will not be opened till the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is solved. During this visit, Erdogan also addressed the Parliament passionately in his characteristic style. Thus, the first Azerbaijani-Turkish crisis was overcome through the Azerbaijani side's pressistence.
Then, Turkish media outlets spread the information with reference to their sources in the Foreign Ministry that the agreement, envisaging the release of five occupied regions in the nearest future, can be signed between Azerbaijan and Armenia. At the same time, Armenian-Turkish protocols were signed in Zurich in October 2009. Rapprochemen between Armenia and Turkey began. Turkish journalists begun to visit Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia. Representatives of Armenian media outlets arrived in Turkey. The apotheosis of all this was a trip of Serzh Sargsyan to Bursa to watch a football match Armenia-Turkey.
At the same time, the meeting between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan in Chisinau was unsuccessful. One felt that during that period the world community exerts massive pressure on Baku to force Azerbaijan to make additional concessions in the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. Apparently, the world had the impression that Armenia actually yielding Turkey concerning genocide, can not make major concessions in the Nagorno-Karabakh problem.
Baku stood this pressure. After the meeting, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in an interview with the state TV channel said that Armenia is stalling for time and wants to settle the occupied areas by the Armenians. Moreover, the President stressed that the Armenian-Turkish rapprochement gives an additional incentive to official Yerevan. In this situation, another crisis occurred between Azerbaijan and Turkey. Its symptoms were insulting the Azerbaijani flag in Bursa and dismantling of Turkish flags in the Alley of Martyrs in Baku. Official Baku expressed its dissatisfaction with this situation by all available means. Only after Azerbaijan has shown such strength in the position, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu arrived in Baku. He promised to punish those responsible for insulting the flag of fraternal people. Then, the information occurred in the media that Turkish policemen who have committed improper acts against the symbol of Azerbaijan, were punished. After that, Turkish flags were returned to their place, and the Azerbaijani-Turkish crisis was solved.
Tensions in Azerbaijani-U.S relations occurred after the U.S. Congress decided to allocate financial assistance worth $ 8 million to the separatist regime of Nagorno-Karabakh. The U.S legislation body annually allocates aid to the separatists. But for the first time Azerbaijan reacted on it angrily at the level of a diplomatic note of the Foreign Ministry and statements of the Parliament. It was a very hard and loud response.
On the eve of the Munich meeting with Sargsyan, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said if Armenia further delays solving the conflict, Baku will leave the negotiation process and can use a military way. The Munich meeting became the only one when both sides said they were satisfied with the results of the negotiations. But as a result there was stalemate. Azerbaijan has not made additional compromises. But the proper pressure is not exerted on Armenia to force Yerevan to observe peace. The United States must exert this pressure.
Erdogan actually called on Obama to it. In Washington, he stressed the link between the opening of the Armenian-Turkish border with the process of solving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. At the same time, Erdogan refused from U.S proposals concerning the Iranian issue. He refused from sending additional peacekeepers to Afghanistan. But at the same time, Sargsyan returned to the end of the last century again and spoke about the package settlement of the conflict, the principle - the territory in exchange for status. Then, Armenia cancelled the entire negotiation process by talking about bringing "Nagorno Karabakh Republic" to negotiate. Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov emphasized this feature of Armenia - to return to earlier reached agreements, by prolonging the negotiation process.
One can assume that in 2010 Azerbaijan will continue its foreign policy, which is based on the economic achievements of the country. Azerbaijan has achieved GDP growth when all countries of the region suffered from consequences of economic crisis, asked loans and aid from the third countries and the international financial organizations and could not avoid devaluation. In this situation, official Baku has all the necessary resources to insist on its own terms while solving one or another question. Azerbaijan has a wide sphere for maneuver. The political processes and projects that involve the country allow conducting political bargaining. Its goal, of course, is to ensure the strategic interests of the state.
The expansion of military capabilities of Azerbaijan strengthens the position of the country in the international arena and in the settlement of Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has repeatedly stated that if hopes for the talks are exhausted, the country will have no other way except liberation its territory from the Armenian occupation militarily. "We must be ready for it. The work has been recently conducted in forming the army, of course, has a purpose. We are spending billions. We strengthen our army. We buy new weapons, equipment. We strengthen our position in the line of contact. We do this because we never excluded and do not exclude this option. We are fully entitled to to release our lands militarily, " the president said at a meeting with public members of the Kalbajar region in November.
On this basis, we can predict that in 2010 Azerbaijan will insist on the release of at least five occupied regions at an early stage. If the international pressure is exerted on Armenia, a framework agreement can be signed. At the same time, Azerbaijan will continue its diversification policy of its energy supplies to the world markets. The answer to the question in what direction the Azerbaijani and Central Asian hydrocarbons will be delivered, mainly depends on the process of the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement. The Armenian-Turkish rapprochement also depends on it. These are all questions answers to which can be given in 2010.