Trend had an exclusive interview with Political and Military Analysis Institute's International Relations Department head Sergey Markedonov for the Yeni Azerbaycan newspaper.
Azerbaijan, Baku, March 18 / Trend E.Tariverdiyeva /
Trend : How do you assess the adoption of the "Armenian genocide" resolution by the U.S. Congress Committee? Will the Congress adopt the final resolution on the genocide and what results could such a step have?
Markedonov: The United States has not yet recognized the so-called Armenian genocide of 1915. The adoption of the resolution is not the first such case; Oct. 10, 2009 was a similar case. Moreover, the resolution was adopted with 24 to 23 votes. The decision is extremely negatively perceived in Turkey.
American diplomacy has two directions: pragmatic politicians who do not want to jeopardize relations with Turkey and moralistic politicians who believe that there are eternal values.
The theme of "genocide" will occur again but in general, the Congress and the White House will not let the initiative pass.
Q: How would strengthening the EU and France's role affect the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?
A: The role of France and the EU is significant in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolution. Generally, after the five-day war in Georgia, the European Union is interested in expanding its participation in the events in the South Caucasus. The EU may play the role of an independent arbitrator.
In addition, France has experience as a mediator in the OSCE Minsk Group. Speaking of the position of France, President Nicolas Sarkozy has clearly defined it signing the new Madrid Principles.
Q: What are the OSCE Minsk Group's chances to resolve the conflict based on international law? Is this format necessary for the talks?
A: The OSCE Minsk Group is a negotiating format, which cannot solve the problem in Baku and Yerevan. It can just help to establish a dialogue, but not return the territory to Azerbaijan, for example. However, the Minsk Group is necessary to negotiate, mediate, and monitor the moods in the two societies. It has coped with this well for many years. However, nobody can resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict completely, except the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents.
Q: People say that the gas supply project from the Caspian region to Europe via Nabucco is losing its relevance. What do you think about the project's future?
A: The question with Nabucco is not so economic, but rather political. Now, the main issue is to get Iran to join in Nabucco, as its potential is unclear (without Tehran's participation). A very complicated game is being played with Iran. Nobody knows how it will end. Therefore, Nabucco is on rather political grounds, rather than a purely economic project with transparent schemes of future benefits. I think there will not be a Nabucco in the short term. But the talks, of course, will continue. Perhaps, in the long term, they will lead to the project's implementation.
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