Azerbaijan, Baku, Oct. 13 / Trend E. Ostapenko /
Kyrgyzstan moved to the parliamentary form of government. This form will prove to be ineffective for a couple of years due to the low level of political culture and the influence of ethnic factors, Alexei Vlasov, editor-in-chief of analytical information portal Vestnik Kavkaza (Bulletin of the Caucasus), said.
"The parliamentary republic in Kyrgyzstan is an interim variant. Kyrgyzstan will face with the new constitutional reform in 1,5-2 years, if there is a generally recognized, charismatic and even a bit authoritarian leader, who will propose the country a new agenda," Vlasov, a member of Trend Expert Council, told Trend journalists.
Kyrgyzstan moves to a parliamentary form of government as a result of the removal of President Bakiyev and the change of power in the country, first among Central Asian countries.
Last Sunday, parliamentary elections were held in the country. The Ata-Jurt opposition party is among those admitted to the parliament. It stands for the strengthening of the president's functions.
Vlasov said that there are no political parties in the classical sense in Kyrgyzstan. The parties represent the support groups of certain politicians.
According to the results of the elections, five parties were admitted to the parliament, gaining roughly equal number of votes. These parties are the following: the Ata-Jurt party, the Social Democrats party, the Ar-Namys party, "Republic" and the Ata Meken party.
After admitting to the parliament, these parties must form coalitions to coordinate their interests, Vlasov said. The main intrigue is whether they can come to a consensus. They may have completely different views on business, political future of the country, etc. Sooner or later it will become clear that the parliamentary system of government is ineffective, Vlasov said.
"It is good that the elections were held. The stability is preserved in general. But probably it is a temporary lull. There will be fascinating struggle between the parliamentary parties, he said.
Vlasov said that he attended the presentation of a Kyrgyz politician on the eve of the elections. It was stated that the Kyrgyz society, according to opinion polls, which have not been made public, has the huge request for new faces, new political figures, and consequently new ideas.
This request was not realized, Vlasov said. The representatives of the same old elite - the Social Democrats, the Ata-Jurt and the Republic were admitted to the parliament. Therefore, Kyrgyzstan will face with the process of change of political generations in the nearest 4 - 5 years.
After announcing the election results, there were fears of a split in the country into North and South because the Ata-Jurt party, comprising mainly of ousted President Bakiyev's supporters, got seats in the parliament.
Vlasov said that Ata-Jurt party's entry into the parliament does not indicate that the country is threatened by a split.
The split of the country into North-South mainly depends on the Uzbek diaspora's position, on whom a final bid will be made in the post-election period by authoritative infromal leaders of the Uzbek community and whether the central government in Bishkek will be able to negotiate with them.
"But if the consensus formula is not found, then the most negative scenario of the political situation in the country is possible," Vlasov said.