Can Gaddafi gain victory over opposition?
Trend Middle East Desk Commentator Aygul Tagiyeva
The Arab world shudders at the series of revolutions taking place in several countries since early 2011. "Pioneers" of the Arab revolutions are Tunisia and Egypt, where protesters first went on the streets and squares with political and social slogans.
Later, the protests have become more scaled, and the government made concessions. Mass and anti-government demonstrations led to power change in Tunisia and Egypt. Both countries are now experiencing more or less quiet period and get used to live in a relatively democratic conditions. The main issue for them is what will happen next and who will come to power.
These revolutions have given impetus to the start of anti-government demonstrations in other Arab countries such as Libya, Yemen, Algeria and others.
Arab revolutions have already affected global politics and economy. They stopped economic activity in the region of North Africa and the Middle East, caused rise in oil prices.
At present, Libya is of interest, where the situation remains unstable for already third week. The country's leader Muammar Gaddafi said he is not going to leave power, while the opposition in Libya also does not intend to retreat from its demands.
At present, majority of western provinces remains under Gaddafi's authority, while the eastern territory came under the opposition's power.
A question arises in such a situation: Can Gaddafi gain victory and remain in power in the country?
Given that Libya has been a major exporter of oil to European countries for many years, then it is likely that the EU will not prevent Gaddafi's victory over insurgents, being concerned about the realization of principle "a new broom sweeps clean".
There's also a probability of the country's split and civil war in Libya after Gaddafi's leaving, which could result in the capture of major oil fields and stop or cessation of oil production, which in turn could lead to a new global economic crisis. Undoubtedly, first Western countries will suffer from it.
On the other hand, there is the danger from terrorist organizations that can benefit from the current situation in Libya, to gain a foothold in the country. And this means that new dangerous region will appear for European countries and the U.S.
At the same time, Gaddafi's victory could lead to intensification of Libya's political isolation. As, the UN has already taken sanctions against it due to the war against its own peoples.
However, the EU can count on resumption of oil supplies.
It is no longer necessary to choose the partners in circumstances when a barrel of "black gold" costs $ 120.
Based on the above-mentioned facts, one can assume that preservation of Gaddafi's power is beneficial for European countries and America. Given the U.S. and Europe's impact on the region, one can say that Gaddafi's victory over insurgents is quite real.