Conflict between Iran and West to Affect World
Azerbaijan, Baku / Тrend corr A. Gasimova / Politician Azer Mursaliyev, the head of the Political-Economic Department of Russian newspaper Kommersant (Businessman), reported that the conflict between Iran and the West regarding the nuclear agenda will affect not only the South Caucasus but the entire world.
According to Mursaliyev, it is difficult now to forecast the degree of the impact. "It is not yet known how the conflict will interfere in the region. Whether there will be only air-strikes or land operations. Everything depends on the character of the conflict," Mursaliyev said. He also added that Russian media has some data indicating that Iran may possibly target Azerbaijan and Georgia; however this data is only available in CIS territories. "I do not believe Iran considers the operations possible. Iran will not benefit from it. In terms of retaliation, Iran closing off the Strait of Hormuz is more possible but it would result in sinking several Iranian tankers or barges. Organizing a rebellion in Iraq will also be a senseless act because even if they manage to defeat American soldiers there, the US combatant forces capable to act against Iran is the Navy.
If the regime in Iran changes as a result of military operations, the significance of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline project and the geopolitical importance of Azerbaijan and Georgia will rapidly decrease. " Azerbaijan and Georgia are considered to be the single narrow corridor leading to the Caspian Sea, which is relatively free from Russian and Iranian influence. If the anti-American regime in Iran changes, and the US can access the Caspian through Iran, the BTC corridor will be of no use," the expert said.