U. S. A., Washington/ Trend , corr. A. Gara/ Dmitriy Trenin, a political analyst, the Deputy of the Director of the Moscow Carnegie Centre, considers that U. S. possible military interference to Iran cannot solve the issue around the Nuclear Programme of this country, but on the contrary it may aggravate it.
In his interview to Trend, which was taken in Washington, Mr. Trenin expressed a hope that the U.S. military interference to Iran would not take place, however he added that it might happen. "We still have an opportunity to solve the Iranian nuclear issue more effectively than a military interference that, in my opinion, could not settle this problem. If you remember, in 1981, the Israeli Air Force efficiently stroke on Iraq and destroyed the nuclear reactor of Osirak on the territory of this country.. The Iraqi Nuclear Programme was settled this way. Today it is very difficult to rule such a military operation due to some technical reasons," said the Russian political analyst.
According to Mr. Trenin, the involvement of such countries like Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia in the U. S. possible military blow on Iran is quite possible. "However, I do not think that Azerbaijan will closely cooperate with Americans if they launch this military attack," he said by adding that the U. S. policy is subjected to changes, but the geopolitical neighbourhood with Iran is not. At the same time, Armenia is not as close to U. S. in this issue as Azerbaijan. Georgia, in its turn, hopes that Iranian gas will become an alternative to Russian one, and Georgian cooperation with Americans in this issue will have a blow on Georgian-Iranian relations.
The political expert added that possible military actions, which might be taken against Iran, would create a chaos that would rapidly change the situation in the whole region for the worse. " Russia will certainly be far from the possible American attack. It will not support Iranian Army, but will blame Americans for the hostages they launched. Military actions will make happy nobody, particularly cannot solve the Iranian nuclear issue. I hope that U. S. will change their mind toward trying another way out of the existing situation, which will include elements on putting obstacles, containment, and peaceful co-existence," he added.
According to the Russian political analyst, Iran is the largest country in the region and will remain being it. " Iran is one of those countries that zealously keeps its centuries-oil traditions, and one should keep in mind that it is impossible to break Iran for a long time. Iran is currently on the rise. Therefore, there is an issue of how to integrate this country to turn it into a stabilizing force for the security and prosperity in the whole region," concluded Mr. Trenin.