Azerbaijan, Baku/ Trend , corr. A. Gasimova/ Dmitriy Trenin, a political analyst, the Deputy of the Director of the Moscow Carnegie Centre, considers that no conflict in Caucasus can be settled without participation or active cooperation with Russia.
In his interview taken in Washington, Mr. Trenin commented on Russia's possible approval of the resolution of so-called "frozen" conflicts in the region. "The Russian consent on the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue is a very weighty issue. I do not think that Russia giving its consent for the resolution of conflict in Caucasus is what needs to be done," said the Russian expert and added that it would be foolish to expect the resolution of the conflict without taking into consideration the interests and wishes of Russia, or Russia's immediate involvement with these conflicts.
According to Mr. Trenin, Georgia's possible membership in NATO will not cause a conflict between Russia and NATO, "however we should think about Georgia's involvement in NATO, as they have some unsettled conflicts on their territory". Touching upon the Georgian-Abkhazian conflict, the political analyst said most of the population of Abkhazia has Russian passports, thereby being Russian citizens. All that may aggravate the issue, and this fact should also be taken into consideration by Georgia when joining NATO.
The political analyst considers that the Russian and American interests in Caucasus are quite different. This region is more important for Russia, though the U. S. is presently a weightier player on the international political arena. "Russian interests in the region are based upon the ideas that this country remains an empire, which is turning into a great strength. It is true that South Caucasus were the former territories of the Russian Empire and then the Soviet Union.
A century ago, the Russian Prime-Minister, Sergey Vitte, stated that there was no conception of Russia, there was just the Russian Empire. Nowadays, Russian leaders have changed this conception. They say that there is Russia and we focus our attention on the interests of Russia. It is a very important differentiation," stresses Mr. Trenin. According to him, Russia is carrying its policy following the principle of neighbourhood, this principle is based on what is good for Russia. " Russia should make these countries safe and secure for business in their countries. Russia is pushing its interest in these countries with an increasing energy.
Economic interests such as the energy sector are Russia's priority. . The other type of interest is a strategic one. Russia is keen to feel convenient in this region. "To feel convenient for Russia means that there is no-one else on your territory, who may cause an inconvenience to Russia. Russia views some FSU countries' striving for NATO, as well as presenting their territories for foreign bases, particularly American ones that harm its interest in the FSU countries. This type of the development of the situation is considered as playing without the winner," considers the expert.
According to Mr. Trenin, U. S. A., for its part, views the region from points of view of development of democracy and interests in energy sector. "The Caspian region is a very important energy source for the U. S. and this country seeks to open an access for energy carriers flowing directly to the West leaving Russia's side. From this position, America has a great interest in establishing good relations with Azerbaijan. The U. S. policy ranges between the development of democracy and economic interests and the U. S. A. is without fail against the resurrection of the Russian Empire," concluded the Russian political analyst.