BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 11. Global oil demand is expected to see a year-on-year growth of 2.2 million barrels per day in 2022, and 1.4 million barrels per day - in 2023, Bassam Fattouh and Andreas Economou, the experts at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES), said, Trend reports via the Institute.
“China’s post-lockdown recovery and pent-up demand in advanced economies support the near-term outlook, but risks are tilted to the downside and the risk of demand responses to higher oil prices and slower economic growth increases in 2023,” the experts said.
They noted that the growth outcome in the third quarter of the current year will be critical to the outlook.
Meanwhile, the oil market is still experiencing a small surplus in 2022 at 0.38 million barrels per day, but the market deficit is expected to resume earlier, starting in the fourth quarter, which will lead to a deepening of the overall deficit in 2023 to -0.58 million barrels per day. The OECD stocks remain under serious pressure for the remainder of the year, until the reverse end of the year - 2022, when the deficit will only slightly decrease in 2023, the experts said.
As for the price forecast, the OIES experts project Brent to stand at $112.8 per barrel in 2022, and $102.8 per barrel - in 2023, with the price pressures sustained in the second and the third quarters, before easing towards in 2023.
“Oil price volatility remains high throughout, but the balance of risks is tilted to the downside in 2023”.
“Global supplies find little comfort as most OPEC+ struggle to meet their quotas, the prospects of reaching an Iran nuclear deal have diminished, US shale growth remains constrained by surging inflation and supply-chain bottlenecks and companies sticking with plans to keep capital spending in check. In the near-term, the crude market could find relief from the continued strategic petroleum reserves' releases, but this will be temporary,” the research added.
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