BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 13. Global refinery crude throughput in 2023 is forecast at the level of 81.8 million barrels per day, which is an increase of 1.3 million barrels per day, compared to the expected volume in 2022, Trend reports with the reference to the latest report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
According to the report, world refinery throughput increased by 500,000 per day in June 2022 to 79.2 million barrels per day, which is also 1.2 million barrels per day above 2021 level.
“A number of outages and tight spare capacity outside of China meant that product supply failed to keep up with the seasonal increase in demand. Product cracks nevertheless fell from records highs observed in late May, but were on average substantially higher on a monthly basis,” the report noted.
As the IEA expects, given that seasonal growth will continue until August, when global supplies are expected to reach their 2022 peak of 82.2 million barrels per day, there is still some hope for replenishment of inventories in the third quarter of the current year, before the usual inventory reduction in the fourth quarter.
“In the current circumstances, there is more downside risk to our throughput forecast than upside potential. Bringing back mothballed refineries involves serious financial commitment and lengthy rehabilitation work. With inventory cover thinned after extensive drawdowns, the most immediate relief for overstretched global product markets could only come from demand-side measures or “natural” demand destruction,” the report added.
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