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Forecast for global oil demand in 2023 revised up - IEA

Economy Materials 19 December 2022 10:26 (UTC +04:00)
Forecast for global oil demand in 2023 revised up - IEA
Maryana Ahmadova
Maryana Ahmadova
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BAKU, Azerbaijan, December 19. Global oil demand growth forecast for 2023 has been revised up by 100,000 barrels per day (b/d) to 1.7 mb/d, Trend reports via the latest oil market update from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Thus, world oil demand for the whole 2023 is set at 101.6 mb/d.

"Amid macro-economic headwinds, a global economy possibly heading for recession and a European energy crisis, our latest oil demand data were relatively firm. This was especially apparent in non-OECD regions. Chinese and Middle Eastern actuals came in generally supportive, mostly thanks to gasoil. Conversely, OECD oil demand remained soft, depressed by extreme weakness in European and Asian petrochemical demand that outweighed ongoing gas-to-oil switching in manufacturing processes," the report said.

At the same time, industrial consumers in Europe continue to shift from natural gas to gasoil, which is now much cheaper in energy equivalent.

"Moreover, this helps offset fears of a gas supply crunch over the winter and into 2023 and 2024. In September non-road gasoil usage climbed by 80,000 b/d year-on-year and although unusually warm temperatures in October likely dented demand, switching is already set to be more widespread than seen last winter. We now expect roughly 550,000 b/d of total switching-related deliveries in Europe during 4Q22 and 1Q23, 80,000 b/d higher than in last month’s Report. This upwards revision is almost entirely comprised of gasoil," the report added.

Meanwhile, according to the IEA, world oil demand growth forecast for 2022 has been revised up by 140,000 b/d to 2.3 mb/d. Thus, world oil demand for the whole 2022 is set at 99.9 mb/d.

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