BAKU, Azerbaijan, December 20. Global demand for coal will remain at around 2022 level of 8 billion tons until 2025, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said, Trend reports via the IEA's latest update on the coal market.
However, given the current global energy crisis, with all its uncertainties, a jump towards growth or reduction is possible. This may be due to changes in global economic activity, weather conditions, fuel prices or government policies - among many other potential variables, the report said.
According to the IEA, the developments in China may have the largest impact on the forecast for world coal demand.
"China’s power sector alone accounts for one-third of global coal consumption. Coal consumption in China grew strongly in 2021, but growth is expected to remain relatively stagnant at an average of 0.7 percent a year to 2025, largely because of the increase in renewable power generation. In the 2022-2025 period, we expect China’s renewable power generation to increase by almost 1,000 TWh, equivalent to the total power generation of Japan today," the report noted.
At the same time, coal use is projected to maintain its downward trajectory in the US, and to drop significantly in the EU by 2025.
The IEA expects new renewable generation capacity to cover almost 90 percent of additional electricity demand through 2025 globally. With a slight increase in nuclear power generation and high gas prices dominating, coal power generation is forecast to grow modestly to 2025.
"Therefore, in the absence of low-emissions alternatives that can replace coal at scale in the iron and steel sector in the near term, global coal demand is set to remain flat through our forecast period," the report concluded.