Azerbaijani research company forecasts 6.5-percent economic growth in country
Azerbaijan, Baku, Oct. 13 / Trend /
The Azerbaijani ASPECT Research company forecasted that Azerbaijan's GDP will grow to 33.8 billion manat, and economic growth in the country will be 6.5 percent by late 2009, the company reported with reference to the bulletin "Macro Finance: short-term forecasts".
According to the State Committee on Statistics, in January-August, the country's GDP reached 20.6 billion manat, and economic growth was 5 percent compared to the same period in 2008.
In accordance with the projections by ASPECT Research, cut of inflation ratio level in the country will slow by late 2009 and the annual inflation in 2009 will be determined at the level of 2.5-2.6 percent. In January-September, consumer price inflation fell from 11.9 percent to 2.6 percent compared to the same period last year.
Under the company's estimates, in late 2009 monetary incomes of the population will amount to 22.7 billion manat, which means their increase by 2.6 billion manat compared to the figure of 2008. Given the projected level of inflation, expected real growth in incomes of the population will be 10.2 percent.
It is projected that the volume of investments in fixed capital will reach 7.1 billion manat in late 2009.
By late 2009, the total volume of loans will reach 7.9 billion manat. As in the past year, loans in the national currency (52 percent) will prevail in the structure of loans. In 2008, the total volume of loans amounted to 7.2 billion manat, 51 percent of which were issued in manat.
The company predicts that the volume of overdue loans reached 278 million manat in late 2009, which would represent 3.5 percent of total loans. Last year, a similar figure was 159.8 million manat, or 2.2 percent of total loans.
The official exchange rate of the euro against the manat will increase to 1.2 percent by late 2009, the company forecasts. It is also expected that the national currency will cheapen to Russia's ruble and the Turkish lira.