Western analysts expect global economic growth

Western analysts expect global economic growth

Azerbaijan, Baku, Oct. 27 / Trend A.Badalova /

Despite the gradual growth, prospects for a full and speedy recovery of the world economy still remain uncertain and controversial. Heads of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank consider occurrence of a new recession as fully probable. In early October, World Bank President Robert B. Zoellick said global economic growth that began in 2009 may stop in 2010 due to suspension of the economic support rendered by the governments. Nevertheless, the forecasts for the further growth of the global economy are fairly optimistic.

Under the IMF forecasts, in 2010 the world GDP will grow by 3.1 percent compared to 2.5 percent forecasted earlier. The IMF's 2009 forecasts for GDP growth remain low. The IMF expects a 4.2-percent decrease in Euro zone GDP and a 5.4-percent decrease in Japan GDP compared to growth by 0.3 and 1.7 by percent in 2010, respectively.

According to analysts of the German Deutsche bank, in 2009 global economic recession will amount to 2.6 percent. In 2010, world GDP will grow by two percent. Analysts expect a 2.6- percent decrease of GDP in the U.S., 5.8 percent in Japan, 3.9 percent in Euro zone, 2.5 percent in Latin America in 2009 compared to growth by 1.9 percent, 1.5 percent, 0.7 percent and 2.6 percent in 2010, respectively

Analysts of one of the world's largest banks American JPMorgan forecast a fall by 2.5 percent in the world economy in 2009. In 2010, the analysts expect global economic growth by 3.5 percent.

According to analysts of one of British leading consulting firms for economic research Capital Economics, in 2010 GDP growth will be 3 percent in the U.S and Japan and 1.5 percent in the Euro zone. In 2009, GDP is forecasted to fall to 2.5 percent in U.S., 5 percent in Japan and 4 percent in Euro zone. According to analysts, world GDP will reduce by 3 percent in 2009, but grow by 2.5 percent in 2010 and 2 percent in 2011.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries expects drop in world GDP in 2009, at 1.2 percent and its increase in 2010 at 2.7 percent. The U.S. GDP will fall by 2.7 in 2009 percent, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) by 3.9 percent, Japan by 5.6 percent, Euro zone by 4.1 percent, India 5.6 and China by 8 each. In 2010, OPEC expects GDP growth in the U.S. by 1.3 percent, the OECD by one percent, Japan by 1.3 percent, China by 8.5 percent, India by 6.5 percent and Euro zone by zero growth.

The level of economic growth for 2009-2010:


2009 (percent)

2010 (percent)

2011 (percent)


- 4.2 (Е)

- 5.4 (J)

3.1 (W)

0.3 (Е)

1.7 (J)


Capital Economics

- 3 (W)

- 2.5 (U)

- 4 (Е)

- 5 (J)

2.5 (W)

3 (U)

1.5 (Е)

3 (J)

2 (W)


- 1.2 (W)

- 2.7 (U)

- 3.9 (О)

- 4.1 (Е)

- 5.6 (J)

2.7 (W)

1.3 (U)

1 (О)

0 (Е)

1.3 (J)


Deutsche Bank

- 2.6 (W)

- 2.6 (U)

- 3.9 (Е)

- 5.8 (J)

2 (W)

1.9 (U)

0.7 (Е)

1.5 (J)


JP Morgan

- 2.5 (W)

3.5 (W)


W - World GDP


E - Euro zone

U - U.S

J - Japan

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