Azerbaijan, Baku, Dec. 28 / Trend A.Badalova /
Position of the U.S. dollar against the European currency has been weak since the week began. The weakening was observed due to the expectations of positive dynamics of global economic growth during next year.
The exchange rate of dollar amounted to 1.3164 euro on Dec.27.
Western analysts have disagreed about the position of the American currency in relation to European in the short term.
Analysts at one of Britain's leading consulting firms for Economic Research Capital Economics expect the euro to fall inn the background of weaker economic recovery of the euro zone compared to the U.S.
Moreover, they forecast the rate of dollar equaling that of euro 2012, predicting that in 2011 the dollar exchange rate will gradually decline at the rate of 1.25 euro in the first quarter and 1.1 euro in the fourth.
The German Deutsche Bank has forecasted that euro will rise to $1.45 by the end of the first quarter of 2011 and then again decrease to $1.4 by the end of the second quarter and $1.3 by the end of 2011. The main factor for the fall of the euro will be the expectation that the policy will be tightened by the Federal Reserve System.
Analysts at U.S. bank Goldman Sachs have shown expectation that U.S. dollar will further weaken in 2011 in the backdrop of the U.S. budget deficit and a record foreign debt in the country.
The banks' analysts expect the rate of euro against the dollar to amount to $1.5 in late 2011.
Analysts at one of the largest UK banks Barclays Capital expect euro to strengthen in 2011 and also forecast the rate of euro against dollar at $1.5 in late 2011.
JP Morgan has predicted the strengthening of European currency against the U.S. dollar up to $1.45 for the second quarter of 2011 and $1.48 in the third quarter.
Western analysts' forecasts on dollar / euro (euro / dollar)
Companies/Banks |
2011 |
2012 |
Capital Economics ($/euro) |
1.25 (I quarter) 1.1 (IV quarter) |
1 |
Deutsche Bank (euro/$) |
1.45 (I quarter) 1.4 (II quarter) 1.3 (end of the year) |
- |
Goldman Sachs (euro/$) |
1.5 (end of the year) |
- |
Barclays Capital (euro/$) |
1.5 (end of the year) |
- |
JP Morgan (euro/$) |
1.45 (II quarter) 1.48 (III quarter) |
- |