Azerbaijan, Baku, Jan. 26 / Trend N.Ismayilova /
Based on the forecasts of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), GDP growth in the CIS countries will amount to 4.7 percent in 2011 and 4.6 percent in 2012, the IMF's January World Economic Outlook reads.
The forecast for the region increased by 0.1 percent for 2011 and decreased by 0.1 percent - 2012 compared to the October 2010 WEO.
Based on the report, Global activity expanded at an annualized rate of just over 3½ percent in the third quarter of 2010. A slowdown from the 5 percent growth rate of the second quarter of 2010 was expected, but the third-quarter rate was better than forecast in the October 2010 WEO, owing to stronger-than expected consumption in the United States and Japan. Stimulus measures were partly responsible for the strengthened outturn, especially in Japan. More generally, signs are increasing that private consumption-which fell sharply during the crisis-is starting to gain a foothold in major advanced economies.
Growth in emerging and developing economies remained robust in the third quarter, buoyed by well-entrenched private demand, still accommodative policy stances, and resurgent capital inflows.
In both 2011 and 2012, growth in emerging and developing economies is expected to remain buoyant at 6½ percent, a modest slowdown from the 7 percent growth registered last year and broadly unchanged from the October 2010 WEO. Developing Asia continues to grow most rapidly, but other emerging regions are also expected to continue their strong rebound.
Activity in the advanced economies is projected to expand by 2½ percent during 2011-12, which is still sluggish considering the depth of the 2009 recession and insufficient to make a significant dent in high unemployment rates. Nevertheless, the 2011 growth projection is an upward revision of ¼ percentage point relative to the October 2010 WEO, mostly due to a new fiscal package passed in late 2010 in the United States that is expected to boost economic growth this year by ½ percent. A package with a similar growth impact passed in Japan is expected to sustain a moderate recovery in 2011. And although growth in the periphery of the euro area is marked down for this year, this is offset by an upward revision to growth in Germany, due to stronger domestic demand.