Azerbaijan, Baku, Sept. 11 / Trend A. Akhundov /
According to the initial macroeconomic forecasts of the Azerbaijani government in 2013, the rate of GDP growth in the coming year will exceed five per cent, a source in the government told Trend on Monday.
It is expected that the budget package for 2013 and the next three years will be submitted to the Cabinet of Ministers by September 15.
"It is projected that GDP growth in 2013 will exceed five per cent while the non-oil sector will grow by more than nine per cent," a source said. "Inflation is expected to be slightly above four per cent."
While compiling the projected indices, a barrel of oil for the next year costs $80. This year the price was originally set at $80. But it was increased to $100 per barrel of oil in the middle 2012 while adjusting the budget projections.
"The government will continue following a conservative approach in this issue towards the projected oil price," a source said. "We have an $80 level to limit the cost, as the price on Azerbaijani oil on the world markets will be above $80 according to our expectations."
He said that the government expects oil production growth in 2013.
"Oil production in Azerbaijan declined in 2011 and 2012," a source said. "It will increase in 2013. Such a growth is beyond doubt. It will continue in 2014. This is connected with the completion of repair work and the construction of new wells."
According to the government's expectations, the growth of investments in the economy will continue in 2013. The dynamics of the non-oil sector growth was observed in macroeconomic projections.
"The state programme for developing Baku and its settlements will be completed in 2013," a source said. "The Baku-Tbilisi Kars railway will also be commissioned. A shipyard will be constructed. Cargo transportation is expected to be increased. The construction of two cement plants, one in Garadagh, another at Agstafa is under construction. This contributes to the increased production of building materials."
He said that tourism and agriculture are expected to be developed in 2013.
"We expect that the intensive measures for the agricultural sector development in Azerbaijan will be efficient in 2013," a source said. "Large farms will work. The crop will be at least 50 quintals per hectare, whereas now it is at the level of 26 quintals."
The Azerbaijani government increased its forecast in terms of GDP by 3.5 billion manat by late 2012 within the adjustment of predicted parameters of the Azerbaijani state and consolidated budgets for 2012. Thus, the GDP will exceed 50 billion manat.
Initially, the growth rate of the GDP as of 2012 is projected at 5.7 per cent and in 2013 - 5.1 per cent. However, it is expected to push down the economic growth rates up to 2.5 -3 per cent due to a planned reduction in oil production in the country by the end of this year.
Azerbaijan's GDP in 2011 increased by 0.1 per cent compared to 2010 in the first quarter of this year, 0.5 per cent compared to the same period of 2011 and in January-July 2012 by 1.6 per cent per annum.
The official exchange rate is 0.7852 AZN/USD on Sept. 10.