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Saxo Bank: Currencies trapped in swamp of uncertainty

Business Materials 10 April 2018 12:11 (UTC +04:00)
Another threat of a trade war posed by the US presidential administration once again has not allowed the currency market to overcome uncertainty at the end of last week, Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank John Hardy told Trend April 10.
Saxo Bank: Currencies trapped in swamp of uncertainty

Baku, Azerbaijan, April 10

By Anvar Mammadov – Trend:

Another threat of a trade war posed by the US presidential administration once again has not allowed the currency market to overcome uncertainty at the end of last week, Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank John Hardy told Trend April 10.

“Equity traders pressed the eject button once again on Friday after the latest round of trade threats from the Trump administration, while currency markets failed once again to react much to the hysterics,” Hardy said.

“To recap, the US jobs report on Friday failed to provide anything compelling for the US dollar: the weak +103,000 headline payrolls number appeared to be a shocker, but given other strong jobs-linked data and the prior month’s absurdly strong 326k number we must keep in mind that month-to-month developments are random and the moving average is healthy,” he said.

Hardy added that as well, earnings data ticked up as expected, so fresh takeaways were absent.

“Ahead of the US jobs report, EURUSD made a weak stab at new multi-week lows, but the downside was quickly corralled on the weak payrolls number and the pair managed to close at nearly unchanged levels for a stunning six weeks running,” he said.

“The USJDPY rally’s ambitions were likewise attenuated by the weak US jobs report and a fresh bid in Treasuries, but the sell-off remains muted so far,” Hardy said.

“It all looks like a bad case of limbo and sitting on our hands to see what unfolds next,” he said. “On that note, Wednesday looks like the pivotal day this week in event risk terms, with the US March CPI data expected to show the first rise in the core inflation level to above 2.0 percent for the first time in 12 months.”

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